# Aker ASA (AKER.OL): Is the Market Pricing Nscale at Only $11 Billion Before Its IPO? > Aker ASA closed at NOK 1,158 on October 26, 2026, down 14.0% in two weeks as AI data center stocks fell. A special-situations investor says the price implies about $11 billion for Nscale, the UK AI cloud company Aker owns 22.7% of, below its $14.6 billion Series C. We check the NAV math, reported IPO pushback and project risks. By MCAFax · Published October 27, 2026 Section: Markets & Main Street › From Wall Street · Series: Market Calls, Investigated (https://mcafax.com/notebook/series/market-calls-investigated) Canonical: https://mcafax.com/notebook/aker-ol-aker-asa-nscale-ipo-discount Source: MCAFax, The Broker's Notebook (https://mcafax.com/notebook). MCAFax is not a lender or a law firm. --- Aker ASA (Oslo: AKER), the Norwegian holding company controlled by Kjell Inge Rokke, closed at NOK 1,158 on October 26, 2026, down 14.0% from NOK 1,346 on October 12 as the AI data center trade sold off. A global special-situations investor says the share price now values Aker's 22.7% stake in Nscale, a UK AI cloud company preparing a US IPO, at only about $11 billion for the whole of Nscale. That is below Nscale's $14.6 billion Series C value, but investors are reported to be pushing the IPO valuation down, and the listing date is not set. *This is journalism and commentary, not investment advice. We hold no position unless stated.* ## Key facts - **The holding company:** Aker reported net asset value (NAV) of NOK 106.1 billion, or NOK 1,429 a share, at June 30, 2026, with 74.29 million shares. - **Nscale stake:** 22.7% fully diluted, carried at NOK 32.1 billion based on the $14.6 billion Series C, or 26.4% of gross assets. - **Biggest holding:** a 21.2% stake in oil producer Aker BP, worth NOK 40.6 billion and 33.4% of gross assets at June 30. - **Pending sale:** Aker agreed to sell Cognite to Schneider Electric, valued at NOK 14.7 billion in the NAV; closing needs regulatory approvals. - **Nscale funding:** a $3.36 billion pre-IPO convertible led by Third Point on September 25, including $1 billion from NVIDIA due in mid-November. - **Next date:** Aker reports third-quarter 2026 results on November 4, 2026. ## Is Aker a good bet right now? The case for Aker is a discount on a discount. Aker has long traded below its NAV, and the bull says the current price implies a low value for Nscale even before that gap is counted. If Nscale lists near its hoped-for range, the value Aker reports for Nscale could rise. The case against is that Nscale's value is not set by anyone yet. Reported investor pushback, project delays and a weak AI infrastructure market could mean a lower IPO price, a delay, or a need for more private money. ## Why are investors bullish on Aker? - **Implied value.** By the bull's math the market values Nscale near $11 billion through Aker's shares. - **Smart money in the cap table.** The convertible round drew Third Point, NVIDIA, funds managed by Apollo and Citadel. - **Contracts.** Nscale says it has over $103 billion of total contracted value. - **Cash in hand.** The Cognite sale would turn a private stake into cash. ## Who's making this call and why? A Capital, an X account describing itself as a global special-situations investor, [wrote](https://x.com/ACapitalLP/status/2114875027992854964) on October 27 that backing out Aker's other holdings and applying its historical discount of about 22% implies roughly $11 billion for Nscale. Its upside case: "At a $25-30bn IPO, I get ~27-39% upside assuming some HoldCo discount compression." It suggests hedging part of the sector risk with short positions in listed neoclouds, and states no position in Aker. Our check: using June 30 holdings, October 26 closing prices for the listed stakes and a 22% discount, we also get about $11 billion for 100% of Nscale. Analysts differ on the inputs. Finansavisen reported that Danske Bank's analyst saw about $15 billion at a 20% discount and ABG Sundal Collier about $17.5 billion at 23%, using prices from mid-October. **Track record.** A Capital is new to our tracking, so it has no scored calls yet. See the [scoreboard](https://mcafax.com/notebook/market-calls-scoreboard). **Other supporters:** we found no other investor making a reasoned case on Aker on X this week. ## Who disagrees? Nebulizer, an X account that says it is fully invested in Nscale rival Nebius and calls its opinions biased, [wrote](https://x.com/SMASIMHO/status/2110443729290936749) of Nscale: "Problem is they have not raised a lot of debt and they will need much more fuel to hit GW scale." The reporting is tougher, as [Finansavisen summarized](https://www.finansavisen.no/teknologi/2026/10/19/8388571/aker-straffes-etter-nscale-trobbel-abg-advarer-mot-dominoeffekt) on October 19: - **Valuation pushback.** Bloomberg reported a group of investors favors $16 billion to $19 billion, against a target near $30 billion. - **Lost customer project.** Microsoft withdrew from a 50 MW UK project, under 4% of Nscale's 1.37 GW of signed capacity, per ABG. - **Delivery risk.** The Financial Times reported Anthropic could exit a $45 billion deal if Nscale misses financing or delivery deadlines in West Virginia. - **Delays.** Nscale's Glomfjord data center in Norway is about six months behind plan. - **Funding gap.** Danske's analyst warned existing owners could have to fill a gap if the IPO does not happen. ## What are the key facts to verify? - Aker's [Q2 2026 report](https://storage.mfn.se/286cd506-3e93-437d-81a0-3f32ea1ccf86/aker-asa-2q-and-half-year-2026-report.pdf) for the NAV table, the Nscale carrying value and debt. - Nscale's [convertible financing release](https://www.nscale.com/press-releases/pre-ipo-convertible-financing) for the round terms. - The November 4 Q3 report for any change to the Nscale value and the Cognite closing. - Whether Nscale files publicly for its US IPO and at what range. ## What would prove it right or wrong? **Right:** Nscale prices an IPO well above $14.6 billion, the Cognite cash arrives, and Aker's NAV discount narrows from the roughly 19.7% it showed at June 30 by our math. **Wrong:** the IPO slips or prices near $16 billion or lower, Nscale needs more money from existing owners, or oil prices pull down the Aker BP stake. *This is journalism and commentary, not investment advice. We hold no position unless stated.* ## Questions readers ask **Why is Aker ASA stock tied to the Nscale IPO?** Aker ASA (AKER.OL) owns about 22.7% of Nscale on a fully diluted basis, making it Nscale's largest shareholder. At June 30, 2026, Aker carried the stake at NOK 32.1 billion, based on Nscale's $14.6 billion Series C valuation, or 26.4% of Aker's gross assets. Because Aker values unlisted stakes at the last major third-party transaction, a US IPO would reset the value of Nscale in Aker's net asset value, up or down. That makes the IPO price the single biggest swing factor for Aker's reported NAV after its Aker BP stake. **What valuation for Nscale does the Aker share price imply?** A special-situations investor says Aker ASA (AKER.OL) at about NOK 1,150 implies roughly $11 billion for Nscale after backing out Aker's other holdings and applying a 22% holding company discount. Our rough math gets a similar figure; Danske Bank and ABG analysts got about $15 billion and $17.5 billion with mid-October prices and different discounts. **What is Aker ASA's net asset value?** Aker ASA (AKER.OL) reported net asset value of NOK 106.1 billion, or NOK 1,429 a share, at June 30, 2026. The share price was NOK 1,148 that day, a discount of about 19.7% by our math. **What IPO valuation is Nscale seeking?** Nscale had targeted about $30 billion, and the Financial Times reported up to $35 billion, according to Finansavisen. Bloomberg reported some investors favor $16 billion to $19 billion. The outcome matters for Aker ASA (AKER.OL) because it owns about 22.7%. **Who invested in Nscale's pre-IPO convertible round?** Nscale raised $3.36 billion in convertible notes on September 25, 2026, led by Third Point, with NVIDIA, funds managed by Apollo, Citadel, Hudson Bay and the Abu Dhabi Investment Council. The notes convert into shares when the IPO completes. Aker ASA (AKER.OL) is Nscale's largest holder. **What are the risks for Aker ASA shareholders?** For Aker ASA (AKER.OL), the risks include a lower or delayed Nscale IPO, Microsoft's exit from a UK Nscale project, a possible Anthropic exit if West Virginia deadlines are missed, Nscale data center delays, and oil price swings through its 21.2% Aker BP stake. **How much of Aker ASA is oil exposure?** Aker BP was Aker ASA's (AKER.OL) largest holding at June 30, 2026, a 21.2% stake worth NOK 40.6 billion and 33.4% of gross assets, so oil prices move a large part of Aker's value. **When does Aker ASA report next?** Aker ASA (AKER.OL) reports third-quarter 2026 results on November 4, 2026. The report should show updated values for Nscale, Aker BP and the pending Cognite sale. **What is the Cognite sale?** Aker ASA (AKER.OL) agreed to sell its Cognite stake to Schneider Electric. Aker values it at NOK 14.7 billion in its NAV based on expected cash proceeds; the deal still needs regulatory approvals. **What would prove the Aker Nscale call right or wrong?** The Aker ASA (AKER.OL) call looks right if Nscale lists well above its $14.6 billion Series C value and Aker's NAV discount narrows. It looks wrong if the IPO slips or prices near $16 billion or lower, or if Nscale needs more money from existing owners.