# Bunge (BG) at $94.72: A Short Seller Says $1.2 Billion of Q3 Cash Burn Clashes With $9.50 EPS Guidance > Bunge beat third-quarter 2026 estimates on October 29 and held its $9.50 adjusted EPS midpoint, but by our math it used about $1.2 billion of operating cash in the quarter. A forensic short seller says the company is in a serious financial hole, while three Wall Street firms kept $140 to $150 targets. With the stock at $94.72 on November 3, we check the cash flow, the guidance and what the fourth quarter must show. By MCAFax · Published November 4, 2026 Section: Markets & Main Street › From Wall Street · Series: Market Calls, Investigated (https://mcafax.com/notebook/series/market-calls-investigated) Canonical: https://mcafax.com/notebook/bg-bunge-cash-burn-short-vs-analyst-targets Source: MCAFax, The Broker's Notebook (https://mcafax.com/notebook). MCAFax is not a lender or a law firm. --- Bunge Global SA (NYSE: BG) beat third-quarter 2026 profit estimates on October 29 and kept its full-year adjusted EPS Outlook of $9.25 to $9.75, with $9.50 at the midpoint. Spruce Point Capital Management, a forensic short seller that has been bearish on Bunge since March 2026, says the cash flow tells a different story: by our math Bunge used about $1.2 billion of cash in operations in the third quarter alone. The next test is whether that cash comes back in the fourth quarter, as Bunge says working capital will. *This is journalism and commentary, not investment advice. We hold no position unless stated.* ## Key facts - **Ticker and exchange:** Bunge Global SA, BG, New York Stock Exchange. - **Situation type:** Activist short campaign against a large agribusiness after the Viterra merger. - **The call:** Spruce Point reiterated its Bunge short on October 29, 2026, hours after the third-quarter release. - **Price:** $94.72 at the November 3, 2026 close, down 6.0% from $100.80 before the results and 23.7% below $124.09 on March 24, 2026, the close before Spruce's report. - **Q3 2026:** adjusted EPS of $2.56 versus $2.27 a year earlier; GAAP diluted EPS of $1.64. - **Cash:** $2,302 million used in operations in the first nine months of 2026, versus $503 million a year earlier. - **Guidance:** full-year 2026 adjusted EPS of $9.25 to $9.75, unchanged. - **Main risk to the short:** Bunge says the cash gap is mostly working capital, and adjusted funds from operations rose to $2,008 million. ## Is Bunge a good bet right now? It depends on which number you trust. Bunge points to adjusted earnings and adjusted funds from operations, both up sharply. Spruce Point points to reported operating cash flow, which has been negative all year. Earnings beat by a wide margin. The [Reuters report](https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2026-10-29/bunge-beats-quarterly-profit-estimates-on-strong-crush-margins) cited an LSEG consensus of $2.44 a share against Bunge's $2.56. ## Why is Spruce Point bearish on Bunge? Spruce Point's October 29 case has four parts: - **Weaker high-margin segments.** Bunge lowered its Outlook for Soybean Processing and Refining (slightly) and for Tropical Oils and Specialty Ingredients. - **Higher interest.** Net interest expense guidance rose to $640 million to $670 million, from $620 million to $660 million. - **Cash burn.** By our math, nine-month operating cash use of $2,302 million less first-half use of $1,126 million leaves about $1,176 million used in the third quarter. - **Funding returns with debt.** Spruce says Bunge is drawing on its credit facility to pay the dividend and buybacks while keeping $9.50 of adjusted EPS guidance. ## Who's making this call and why? Spruce Point Capital Management (@sprucepointcap) describes itself on X as an activist investment manager founded by Ben Axler that specializes in forensic short-selling. It discloses that it talks its own book. On October 29 it [wrote](https://x.com/sprucepointcap/status/2115765949575893224): "$BG #Bunge results look horrible and they appear to be in a serious financial hole." Spruce cited a third-quarter swing in operating cash flow from +$854 million a year earlier to about -$1.2 billion; we confirmed the 2026 figure from the release but not Spruce's 2025 figure. This is a reiteration. We covered the [executive exits angle](https://mcafax.com/notebook/bg-bunge-viterra-executive-exits-short) on October 9. **Track record.** In our tracking, Spruce Point is 11-6 (a .647 win rate) on 17 calls scored at 180 days against the S&P 500, ranked 3rd on the career board, with an average edge of +10.4 points (median +10.0). Its March 2026 Bunge short beat the index by 27.7 points at 180 days. Its October 6 Bunge call, made at $107.32, is provisional and leads the index by about 9 points through the November 3 close. Its October 29 reiteration, made at $100.80, leads by about 4 points. See the [scoreboard](https://mcafax.com/notebook/market-calls-scoreboard). **Supporter:** Zachary Prensky (@Zackfoot), a former family-office manager focused on special situations, flagged the same gap after the first quarter: ["People who are long/short $BG should take note of what @sprucepointcap is saying here"](https://x.com/Zackfoot/status/2049487430609178753). He called the difference between operating cash flow and adjusted funds from operations a black box. ## Who disagrees? - **Management.** Bunge said the higher cash use was "primarily driven by net changes in working capital," partly offset by higher net income, per its [third-quarter release](https://finviz.com/news/411154/bunge-reports-third-quarter-2026-results). - **Earnings.** Reuters said Bunge benefited from robust soybean and oilseed processing margins. - **Commentators.** Naeem Aslam (@NaeemAslam23), CIO of Zaye Capital Markets, wrote after the July results that ["$BG remains undervalued against its stronger earnings base."](https://x.com/NaeemAslam23/status/2082820743650275631) - **Wall Street.** BMO Capital, Barclays and Morgan Stanley kept positive ratings after the results, with price targets of $140 to $150 on October 30, per [StockAnalysis](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/bg/ratings/), which cites TipRanks data. - **Insiders.** Director Christopher Mahoney bought 6,500 shares in July and August 2026 at $105.53 to $107.60, [per his Form 4](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1996862/000162828026052580/wk-form4_1785874416.xml). We found no other reasoned take on the results on X by publication time; most posts relayed the headline numbers. ## What are the key facts to verify? - The [Q3 2026 release](https://finviz.com/news/411154/bunge-reports-third-quarter-2026-results): segment Outlook changes, interest guidance and the nine-month cash flow statement. - The [Q2 2026 release](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1996862/000162828026050334/epr06302026.htm): first-half operating cash use of $1,126 million. - Spruce Point's [March 2026 report](https://www.sprucepointcap.com/research/bunge-global-sa) for its full argument. - The upcoming 10-Q for borrowings, buybacks and readily marketable inventories. ## What would prove it right or wrong? Signals the short is working: - Fourth-quarter operating cash flow stays negative and net debt keeps rising. - Bunge trims the $9.25 to $9.75 range or reports lower 2027 guidance. - More senior departures. Signals it is failing: - Working capital unwinds and operating cash flow turns positive in the fourth quarter. - Bunge delivers $9.50 or more of adjusted EPS for 2026. - Viterra synergies show up in cash, not just adjusted earnings. *This is journalism and commentary, not investment advice. We hold no position unless stated.* ## Questions readers ask **Is Bunge (BG) stock a good bet after its third-quarter 2026 results?** It depends on which numbers you trust. Bunge beat third-quarter 2026 estimates with adjusted EPS of $2.56 against an LSEG consensus of $2.44 and kept full-year adjusted EPS guidance of $9.25 to $9.75. But it used $2,302 million of cash in operations in the first nine months of 2026, versus $503 million a year earlier. Short seller Spruce Point Capital says that gap shows a company borrowing to fund its dividend and buybacks. Bunge says the cash use is mainly working capital. The fourth-quarter cash flow statement is the key test. This is commentary, not investment advice. **What is Spruce Point Capital's short case on Bunge?** On October 29, 2026, Spruce Point said Bunge lowered its Outlook for two high-margin segments, raised its interest expense guidance and burned cash all year while keeping $9.50 of adjusted EPS guidance at the midpoint. It also said Bunge is tapping its credit facility to pay the dividend and share repurchases. **How much cash did Bunge use in the third quarter of 2026?** Bunge reported $2,302 million of cash used in operations for the nine months to September 30, 2026, and $1,126 million for the first half. By our math that leaves about $1,176 million, or roughly $1.2 billion, used in the third quarter. **What did Bunge change in its 2026 Outlook?** Bunge kept adjusted EPS guidance of $9.25 to $9.75. It now sees Soybean Processing and Refining slightly lower and Tropical Oils and Specialty Ingredients lower than before, Grain Merchandising and Milling higher, and net interest expense of $640 million to $670 million, up from $620 million to $660 million. **How does Bunge explain the cash outflow?** Bunge said the increase in cash used for operations was primarily driven by net changes in working capital, partly offset by higher net income and higher depreciation after the Viterra transaction. Its adjusted funds from operations rose to $2,008 million from $1,181 million. **What is Spruce Point Capital's track record?** In our tracking, Spruce Point is 11-6, a .647 win rate, on 17 calls scored at 180 days against the S&P 500, with an average edge of +10.4 points. Its March 2026 Bunge short beat the index by 27.7 points at 180 days. Spruce Point discloses that it profits when the stocks it targets fall. **Where is Bunge stock after the results?** Bunge closed at $100.80 on October 28, 2026, the day before the third-quarter release, and fell 4.7% to $96.02 on October 29 despite the earnings beat. It closed at $94.72 on November 3, 2026, about 23.7% below $124.09 on March 24, 2026, the day before Spruce Point published its first report. **Who is bullish on Bunge?** Naeem Aslam, CIO of Zaye Capital Markets, said after the second quarter that Bunge remained undervalued against its stronger earnings base. Director Christopher Mahoney bought 6,500 shares in July and August 2026 at $105.53 to $107.60, according to his Form 4. After the third-quarter results, BMO Capital, Barclays and Morgan Stanley kept positive ratings with price targets of $140 to $150, according to StockAnalysis, which cites TipRanks data. **What would prove the Bunge short right?** Negative fourth-quarter operating cash flow, rising net debt, a cut to the $9.25 to $9.75 EPS range or weak 2027 guidance would support Spruce Point. A working capital unwind that turns operating cash flow positive would undercut it. **Why did Bunge beat estimates in the third quarter of 2026?** Reuters said Bunge benefited from robust processing margins for soybeans and other oilseeds. Soybean processing and refining net sales rose 5.4% to $11.4 billion, per Reuters.