# Clearwater Paper (CLW): After the Augusta Mill Crash, Value Investors Want a Sale Near $49 Book Value > Clearwater Paper fell 28.8% on October 27, 2026 and closed at $13.40 on November 3 after failures at its Augusta, Georgia mill pushed fourth-quarter guidance below estimates. A small-cap special situations firm says the paperboard maker should sell itself to realize about $49 a share of book value, and another investor sees an activist target. We check the book value, debt, mill costs and analyst pushback. By MCAFax · Published November 4, 2026 Section: Markets & Main Street › From Wall Street · Series: Market Calls, Investigated (https://mcafax.com/notebook/series/market-calls-investigated) Canonical: https://mcafax.com/notebook/clw-clearwater-paper-book-value-sale-push Source: MCAFax, The Broker's Notebook (https://mcafax.com/notebook). MCAFax is not a lender or a law firm. --- Clearwater Paper Corporation (NYSE: CLW), a maker of bleached paperboard for cups and cartons, fell 28.8% on October 27, 2026 and another 3.9% on October 28 after its Augusta, Georgia mill problems pushed fourth-quarter guidance below Wall Street estimates. Kingdom Capital Advisors, a small-cap special situations firm, says the only deal Clearwater Paper should pursue is selling itself to realize book value of about $49 a share. Another value investor calls Clearwater Paper an easy target for an activist, noting that all eight board seats are up at the 2027 annual meeting. *This is journalism and commentary, not investment advice. We hold no position unless stated.* ## Key facts - **Ticker:** CLW on the New York Stock Exchange; situation type is a broken small cap with a possible activist or sale angle. - **The call:** Kingdom Capital Advisors wants a sale "to realize that $50/share of book value"; no position stated. - **Price:** $19.22 at the October 26, 2026 close; $13.69 at the October 27, 2026 close, a drop of 28.8%; $13.15 at the October 28 close, down another 3.9%; $13.40 at the November 3 close. - **Book value:** stockholders' equity of $794.2 million at September 30, 2026, or about $49 a share on 16.1 million weighted shares. - **Debt:** net debt of $260.7 million at September 30, 2026, after a refinancing that pushed maturities to 2031. - **Guidance:** fourth-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $10 million to $20 million, versus a Street estimate of $20.5 million. - **Main risk:** the Augusta mill needs more money, with a January 2027 outage costing $12 million to $15 million. ## Is CLW a good bet right now? The case for Clearwater Paper is a deep discount to its assets. At the November 3 close of $13.40, the stock traded at about 27% of book value. The case against is that book value is only worth what the mills earn. Clearwater Paper lost $35.9 million from continuing operations in the first nine months of 2026, and its third-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $24.4 million leaned on a one-time insurance payment. ## Why are investors bullish on Clearwater Paper? - **Asset discount.** By our math, Clearwater Paper's market value was about $216 million at $13.40, against $794.2 million of equity. - **Prices are rising.** The first $60 per ton price increase is fully in place and a second is being pushed through, per CEO Arsen Kitch. - **Big operating leverage.** Kitch said that if all announced increases stick across all tons, the adjusted EBITDA run rate would improve by nearly $200 million, [Packaging Dive reported](https://www.packagingdive.com/news/clearwater-weighing-options-after-failures-at-mill-acquired-from-graphic-pa/872861/). - **Past interest.** In December 2024, Bloomberg reported that Suzano was exploring an offer for Clearwater Paper; Suzano [said](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/909327/000162828024052429/a20241226-clarificationson.htm) no agreement had been reached. ## Who's making this call and why? Kingdom Capital Advisors publishes quarterly letters on small-cap special situations. After the drop, the firm [posted](https://x.com/kingdomcapadv/status/2115124499368591624) a sarcastic note on management's "value creation." In a [reply](https://x.com/kingdomcapadv/status/2115127892405317783) about doing M&A, the firm wrote: "Yeah the selling kind, lets realize that $50/share of book value." **Track record.** In our tracking, Kingdom Capital is 4-14 (a .222 win rate) on 18 calls scored at 180 days against the S&P 500. Its average edge is -17.3 points and its last 10 scored calls went 2-8. See the [scoreboard](https://mcafax.com/notebook/market-calls-scoreboard). **Other supporters:** Lee Roach, who writes about cheap small caps, [wrote](https://x.com/leevalueroach/status/2115138271168921952): "Clearwater Paper $CLW is a sitting duck for an aggressive activist." Roach says there is no poison pill, management owns about 2% of the shares, and say-on-pay support has fallen four years in a row. He estimates a sale at about $560 per ton could fetch about $31 a share. Those are his claims and estimates. RBC Capital kept an Outperform rating while cutting its target to $22 from $23, [per Investing.com](https://ph.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/rbc-cuts-clearwater-paper-stock-price-target-on-q4-guidance-miss-93CH-2652952). ## Who disagrees? We did not find a reasoned short case on X. Sell-side analysts were cautious: - **Truist** kept a Hold rating and cut its target to $17 from $20, [per Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/truist-cuts-clearwater-paper-stock-price-target-on-weak-guidance-93CH-4974473). Truist estimates 2027 EBITDA near $84 million. - **BofA** kept a Neutral rating and cut its target to $21 from $25, [per TipRanks](https://www.tipranks.com/news/the-fly/clearwater-paper-price-target-lowered-to-21-from-25-at-bofa-thefly-news), citing Augusta maintenance and higher interest costs. The bear points are concrete: - **Augusta keeps breaking.** Electrical and mechanical failures hit the mill in late September and continued into October. - **More spending.** A January 2027 outage at $12 million to $15 million, plus likely 2027 downtime at $7 million to $10 million. - **Insurance is done.** The $17.5 million third-quarter payment was the final one, for $73 million in total. - **Leadership change.** Chief financial officer Sherri Baker will resign effective November 13, 2026, per an [SEC filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1441236/000162828026067280/clw-20261022.htm). - **Leverage.** By our math, net debt is about 3.1x Truist's 2027 EBITDA estimate. ## What are the key facts to verify? - Third-quarter results and balance sheet in the [company release](https://ir.clearwaterpaper.com/investors/press-releases/news-details/2026/Clearwater-Paper-Reports-Third-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx). - Augusta outage costs and insurance totals in the [Packaging Dive report](https://www.packagingdive.com/news/clearwater-weighing-options-after-failures-at-mill-acquired-from-graphic-pa/872861/). - Proxy details Roach cites, such as the poison pill and say-on-pay votes, in Clearwater Paper's proxy filings. - Any Schedule 13D filing, which would show an activist stake above 5%. ## What would prove it right or wrong? Signals the sale case is working: - An activist 13D filing or a public letter to the board. - A strategic review, or a bid from a larger paperboard or pulp producer. - Fourth-quarter selling prices rising again as the second $60 per ton increase lands. Signals it is wrong: - More unplanned Augusta downtime before the January 2027 outage. - Book value shrinking through losses or write-downs. - 2027 EBITDA tracking well below Truist's $84 million estimate. *This is journalism and commentary, not investment advice. We hold no position unless stated.* ## Questions readers ask **What does Clearwater Paper (CLW) do?** Clearwater Paper Corporation (NYSE: CLW) is a Spokane, Washington supplier of bleached paperboard to North American converters, used for food service cups, plates and folding cartons. Clearwater Paper sold its tissue business in 2024 and bought a paperboard mill in Augusta, Georgia from Graphic Packaging the same year. Clearwater Paper reported net sales of $384.9 million for the third quarter of 2026. **Why did Clearwater Paper stock fall on October 27, 2026?** Clearwater Paper (CLW) fell 28.8% on October 27, 2026, from a $19.22 close on October 26 to a $13.69 close, and fell another 3.9% to $13.15 on October 28. The drop followed third-quarter results on October 26 and fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA guidance of $10 million to $20 million, below a Street estimate of $20.5 million. Clearwater Paper blamed electrical and mechanical failures at its Augusta mill that continued into October. **What is the call on Clearwater Paper (CLW)?** Kingdom Capital Advisors, a small-cap special situations firm, says the only deal Clearwater Paper (CLW) should do is a sale that realizes about $50 a share of book value. The firm did not state a position, so we log the call as a pro-sale lean rather than a long. Lee Roach, a value investor, separately argues an activist could push Clearwater Paper into a sale worth about $31 a share by his estimate. **What is Clearwater Paper's book value per share?** Clearwater Paper (CLW) reported stockholders' equity of $794.2 million at September 30, 2026. On about 16.1 million weighted average shares, that is roughly $49 a share. At the $13.40 close on November 3, 2026, Clearwater Paper traded at about 27% of book value by our math. **What is Kingdom Capital's track record?** In our tracking, Kingdom Capital Advisors is 4-14, a .222 win rate, on 18 calls scored at 180 days against the S&P 500. Its average edge is -17.3 points and its last 10 scored calls went 2-8. The Clearwater Paper (CLW) call is new and not yet scored. **What is the bull case for Clearwater Paper (CLW)?** The bull case is a deep discount to book value plus rising paperboard prices. Clearwater Paper has fully implemented a $60 per ton price increase and is pushing a second, and CEO Arsen Kitch said full adoption of announced increases would lift the adjusted EBITDA run rate by nearly $200 million. Bulls also point to Suzano's reported interest in a bid in December 2024, which Suzano said never reached an agreement. **What is the bear case for Clearwater Paper (CLW)?** The bear case is that the Augusta mill keeps consuming cash and the book value overstates what the assets earn. Clearwater Paper plans a January 2027 Augusta outage costing $12 million to $15 million and likely more 2027 downtime costing $7 million to $10 million, and its final $17.5 million insurance payment has been received. Clearwater Paper also lost $35.9 million from continuing operations in the first nine months of 2026. **Who disagrees with the Clearwater Paper sale case?** We did not find a reasoned short case on X, but most sell-side analysts are cautious on Clearwater Paper (CLW). Truist kept a Hold rating and cut its target to $17 from $20, and BofA kept a Neutral rating and cut its target to $21 from $25. RBC Capital stayed at Outperform with a $22 target, down from $23. **What are the key dates for Clearwater Paper (CLW)?** Clearwater Paper's chief financial officer, Sherri Baker, resigns effective November 13, 2026, per an SEC filing. The next Augusta maintenance outage is planned for January 2027. Lee Roach notes that all eight Clearwater Paper board seats are up at the 2027 annual meeting, which is when an activist could seek seats. **How much debt does Clearwater Paper have?** Clearwater Paper (CLW) reported net debt of $260.7 million at September 30, 2026, after refinancing all of its debt and extending maturities to 2031. By our math that is about 3.1 times Truist's 2027 EBITDA estimate of about $84 million. Truist also expects about $5 million of extra annual interest expense from the refinancing. **What would prove the Clearwater Paper call right or wrong?** An activist Schedule 13D filing, a strategic review or a bid from a larger paperboard or pulp producer would support the sale case for Clearwater Paper (CLW). More unplanned Augusta downtime, shrinking book value or 2027 EBITDA well below the roughly $84 million Truist estimate would undercut it. Fourth-quarter selling prices will show whether the second $60 per ton increase is sticking.