# Core Natural Resources (CNR): Buybacks and Thermal Coal Ahead of the November 5 Report > Core Natural Resources closed at $92.10 on October 23, 2026. A fund that writes quarterly letters says it prefers the coal miner over pure met coal peers because of its buyback and thermal business, after Cleveland-Cliffs locked in flat 2027 coal prices. We check the Q2 numbers, the one-time insurance boost and the skeptics. By MCAFax · Published October 26, 2026 Section: Markets & Main Street › From Wall Street · Series: Market Calls, Investigated (https://mcafax.com/notebook/series/market-calls-investigated) Canonical: https://mcafax.com/notebook/cnr-core-natural-resources-buyback-thermal-coal-november-5 Source: MCAFax, The Broker's Notebook (https://mcafax.com/notebook). MCAFax is not a lender or a law firm. --- Core Natural Resources Inc. (NYSE: CNR), the coal miner formed by the merger of CONSOL Energy and Arch Resources, closed at $92.10 on October 23, 2026, well below its 52-week high of about $114.80. A small fund that writes quarterly letters says it prefers Core over pure steel-making coal peers because of its buyback and its thermal coal business. We checked that argument ahead of the company's November 5 report. *This is journalism and commentary, not investment advice. We hold no position unless stated.* ## Key facts - **Two coals:** Core sells high-quality thermal coal to power plants and metallurgical (met) coal to steelmakers, and also owns Powder River Basin mines and a marine export terminal. - **Q2 2026:** net income of $126.5 million, or $2.51 a share, adjusted EBITDA of $323.6 million and about $148 million of free cash flow. - **One-off help:** Q2 included $125.4 million of a $155 million net insurance recovery tied to the Leer South mine. - **Thermal margins:** high-CV thermal coal sold for $58.11 a ton against a $38.58 cash cost, a margin of $19.53 a ton. - **Buybacks:** about 4.3 million shares, roughly 7.9% of the count, bought back for $329.2 million at an average of $77.04 through Q2; the target is to return about 75% of free cash flow. - **Steel buyer signal:** Cleveland-Cliffs said on October 19 that its coal contracts for 2027 concluded at rollover pricing, stable year over year. - **Next report:** Q3 results before the open on November 5, 2026. ## Is CNR a good bet right now? The case is relative, not euphoric. A big US steelmaker locking in flat 2027 coal prices is a weak sign for met coal sellers, and Core earns much of its profit there. What sets Core apart is the thermal side and the buyback. The question for November 5 is whether thermal margins and repurchases can carry results without the one-time insurance money that flattered Q2. ## Why are investors bullish on Core Natural Resources? - **Cash yield.** A B. Riley estimate [cited](https://x.com/kingdomcapadv/status/2110031512158478441) by the call's author put Core at a 14% free cash flow yield for 2027 at spot prices. - **Shrinking share count.** Management said on the Q2 call it expected heavier buybacks in the second half. - **Hidden asset.** Black Bear Value Partners, which holds Core as a top-five position, values the export terminal at $500 million to $800 million, or $11 to $17 a share, per Buyside Digest. - **Diversification.** Exposure to both power and steel demand, rather than one end market. ## Who's making this call and why? Kingdom Capital Advisors, a fund that publishes quarterly letters, [posted](https://x.com/kingdomcapadv/status/2113019631606640773) on October 21, when the stock closed at $87.55: "Feel better about $CNR w/ buyback and thermal strength." It framed this against a "poor setup" for met coal names Alpha Metallurgical Resources and Ramaco after the Cleveland-Cliffs comment. **Track record.** In our tracking, Kingdom Capital is 4-14 (a .222 win rate) on 18 calls scored at 180 days against the S&P 500, with an average edge of -17.27 points and a median of -23.3. Its last 10 went 2-8. Its best was a ZD long, up 85.2 points versus the index. Weigh this call accordingly. See the [scoreboard](https://mcafax.com/notebook/market-calls-scoreboard). **Other supporters:** Arda Arkun, a deep-value investor whose bio says he worked in metals and mining at JPMorgan, [wrote](https://x.com/ardaarkun/status/2112512282009670109): "$CNR is my favorite coal name due to its high quality, low cost and diversified (met and thermal) assets with over 15% fcf yield." Buyside Digest [relayed](https://x.com/buysidedigest/status/2112301267334713798) Black Bear's sum-of-the-parts case. ## Who disagrees? Peter Lukacs Research, a value-investing account, [broke down](https://x.com/Peter_Lukacs_R/status/2109666555843817511) Core's profit mix: the Powder River Basin is 51% of volume but produces virtually no EBITDA, while met coal produces 47% of EBITDA from 12% of volume. He added: "However, metallurgical profits are inflated." - **Insurance distortion.** Without the Q2 recovery, met segment profit would look much thinner. - **Flat 2027 pricing.** The Cleveland-Cliffs rollover suggests little help from domestic met contracts next year. - **Cyclical swings.** The stock has traded between about $74.75 and $114.80 over the past year. ## What are the key facts to verify? - The [Q2 2026 results](https://investors.corenaturalresources.com/2026-08-06-Core-Natural-Resources-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Results) for earnings, insurance recovery, segment margins and buybacks. - The [Q3 date announcement](https://investors.corenaturalresources.com/2026-10-22-Core-Natural-Resources-to-Announce-Third-Quarter-2026-Results-on-November-5). - [Cleveland-Cliffs' Q3 2026 results](https://www.clevelandcliffs.com/news/news-releases/detail/705/cleveland-cliffs-reports-third-quarter-2026-results); the coal contract comment came on its October 19 earnings call. ## What would prove it right or wrong? **Right:** the November 5 report shows steady thermal margins, free cash flow near Q2 levels without insurance help, and a faster buyback pace. **Wrong:** thermal prices soften, met losses return once the insurance money is gone, or buybacks slow. *This is journalism and commentary, not investment advice. We hold no position unless stated.* ## Questions readers ask **Why is a fund bullish on Core Natural Resources (CNR) stock?** Kingdom Capital Advisors posted on October 21, 2026, when Core Natural Resources (NYSE: CNR) closed at $87.55, that it felt better about the coal miner because of its buyback and thermal coal strength. It contrasted Core with met coal names Alpha Metallurgical Resources and Ramaco after Cleveland-Cliffs said its 2027 coal contracts rolled over at stable pricing. Core returned $329.2 million through buybacks through Q2 2026 and targets returning about 75% of free cash flow. Kingdom's scored record is weak, at 4-14. **What does Core Natural Resources do?** Core Natural Resources, formed by the merger of CONSOL Energy and Arch Resources, mines high-quality thermal coal for power plants and metallurgical coal for steelmakers. It also owns Powder River Basin mines and a marine export terminal. **When does Core Natural Resources report Q3 2026 results?** Core Natural Resources reports third-quarter 2026 results before the market open on November 5, 2026, with a conference call that morning. **What were Core Natural Resources' Q2 2026 results?** Core reported net income of $126.5 million, or $2.51 a share, adjusted EBITDA of $323.6 million and about $148 million of free cash flow in Q2 2026. The quarter included $125.4 million of an insurance recovery tied to the Leer South mine. **How much stock has Core Natural Resources bought back?** Through Q2 2026, Core repurchased about 4.3 million shares, roughly 7.9% of its share count, for $329.2 million at an average of $77.04. Management expected heavier buybacks in the second half of 2026. **Why does the Cleveland-Cliffs comment matter for coal stocks?** Cleveland-Cliffs said on its October 19, 2026 earnings call that its 2027 coal contract negotiations concluded at rollover pricing. Flat pricing from a large US steelmaker is a weak signal for domestic met coal sellers. **What is Kingdom Capital's track record?** In our tracking, Kingdom Capital is 4-14 on 18 calls scored at 180 days against the S&P 500, with an average edge of -17.27 points and a median of -23.3. Its last 10 scored calls went 2-8. **What is the bear case on Core Natural Resources?** Peter Lukacs Research notes the Powder River Basin is 51% of Core's volume but produces virtually no EBITDA, while met coal produces 47% of EBITDA on 12% of volume, and says met profits are inflated. The Q2 insurance recovery flattered results. **What is Core's export terminal worth?** Black Bear Value Partners, which holds Core as a top-five position, values the marine export terminal at $500 million to $800 million, or $11 to $17 a share, according to Buyside Digest. **What would prove the Core Natural Resources call right or wrong?** Steady thermal margins, free cash flow near Q2 levels without insurance help and a faster buyback pace on November 5 would support it. Softer thermal prices, renewed met losses or slower buybacks would undercut it.