# Flotek (FTK): Guidance Implies Second-Half EBITDA Below Q2's $16.8 Million After Wolfpack's Short > Flotek closed at $25.10 on October 21, 2026, 30% below its last close before Wolfpack Research disclosed a short tied to a canceled Puerto Rico contract. Kingdom Capital calls the second-half guide sandbagged. We check the implied numbers, related-party revenue and what Q3 must show. By MCAFax · Published October 22, 2026 Section: Markets & Main Street › From Wall Street · Series: Market Calls, Investigated (https://mcafax.com/notebook/series/market-calls-investigated) Canonical: https://mcafax.com/notebook/ftk-flotek-guidance-implies-weaker-second-half-after-wolfpack-short Source: MCAFax, The Broker's Notebook (https://mcafax.com/notebook). MCAFax is not a lender or a law firm. --- Flotek Industries, Inc. (NYSE: FTK) closed at $25.10 on October 21, 2026, down from $35.83 before Wolfpack Research disclosed a short on August 17. Kingdom Capital Advisors now says Flotek's second-half guidance looks "extremely sandbagged," and the math supports a debate: the raised 2026 range implies second-half adjusted EBITDA below the $16.8 million Flotek earned in Q2 alone. Q3 2026 results are the test. *This is journalism and commentary, not investment advice. We hold no position unless stated.* ## Key facts - **Ticker and exchange:** Flotek Industries, Inc., FTK, New York Stock Exchange; oilfield chemistry and real-time data company. - **Situation type:** a contested small cap, with an activist short on one side and an earnings-upside view on the other. - **The call:** Kingdom Capital Advisors (@kingdomcapadv) wrote on October 21, 2026 that "$FTK $LFTO 2H guides seem extremely sandbagged"; no position was stated. - **Guidance:** raised September 9, 2026 to revenue of $360 million to $370 million and adjusted EBITDA of $50 million to $54 million. - **First half:** revenue of $169.4 million and adjusted EBITDA of $25.9 million (company, as of June 30, 2026). - **Implied second half:** about $190.6 million to $200.6 million of revenue and $24.1 million to $28.1 million of adjusted EBITDA, by our math. - **Main risk:** in Q2 2026, $49.1 million of $80.2 million in chemistry revenue came from related parties. ## Is FTK a good bet right now? The bull case is simple arithmetic. If Flotek just repeats its Q2 run rate, it would beat the top of its EBITDA range. The bear case is that guidance may be cautious for a reason. Second-half revenue leans on international chemistry, mostly in Saudi Arabia, and on related-party sales, and Flotek's credibility took a hit when its Puerto Rico contract collapsed. ## Why are investors bullish on Flotek? - **A low bar.** The implied second-half EBITDA of $24.1 million to $28.1 million works out to about $12 million to $14 million a quarter, versus $16.8 million in Q2 2026. - **Two raises in five weeks.** Flotek lifted guidance on August 4 and again on September 9, 2026, citing international chemistry. - **International growth.** Flotek expects second-half international chemistry sales could exceed $40 million, after about $10.6 million in Q2. - **Data Analytics.** That segment posted record Q2 revenue of $19.2 million and 51% of company gross profit. ## Who's making this call and why? Kingdom Capital Advisors publishes quarterly letters and posts as @kingdomcapadv. In an October 21 [earnings-season thread](https://x.com/kingdomcapadv/status/2113019631606640773), it listed Flotek among names whose second-half guides "seem extremely sandbagged." The thread gave no further detail on Flotek. **Track record.** In our tracking, Kingdom Capital is 4-14 (a .222 win rate) on 18 calls scored at 180 days against the S&P 500, with an average edge of -17.3 percentage points, ranked 11th on the career table; its last 10 scored calls went 2-8. See the [scoreboard](https://mcafax.com/notebook/market-calls-scoreboard). **Other supporters:** we found no other credible investor on X making a reasoned bull case since the short report. Flotek management's two guidance raises are the main support. ## Who disagrees? Wolfpack Research, a short seller ranked first on our career table at 11-4 with a +21.6-point average edge, [said](https://x.com/WolfpackReports/status/2089403235815547058) "We are short $FTK" on August 17, 2026. Its [report](https://www.wolfpackresearch.com/_files/ugd/b084d8_952bcc0bee0a4cf3bead8efd884680ff.pdf) argued that Flotek's $400 million Puerto Rico power contract, about 57% of backlog by Wolfpack's estimate, had been canceled after the Oversight Board revoked approval, and that Flotek had missed red flags about its partner. Wolfpack profits if the stock falls. Flotek called the report an attempt to drive down the stock. The next day, PREPA formally terminated the contract, Flotek's [8-K](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/928054/000092805426000084/ftk-20260818.htm) shows. Flotek said it had received no revenue and that guidance never included the project. Since the August 14 close, Flotek is down 30%, a provisional result for Wolfpack that does not count until February 2027. Other risks: - **Related parties.** Most of Flotek's Q2 chemistry revenue came from related parties, and Flotek also books minimum-purchase revenue under a supply agreement with ProFrac Services. - **Insider deal, not a market buy.** A Form 4 for director Matthew Wilks shows THRC Holdings acquired 1,319,493 Flotek shares from ProFrac GDM on September 11 at $26.01, about $34.3 million, in exchange for canceling term loans, per a [filing summary](https://portfoliosavvy.com/report/000110465926108024-wilks-matthew-2026-09-11). - **Litigation.** Law firm notices say shareholder class actions over the Puerto Rico disclosures were filed, with an October 26, 2026 lead-plaintiff deadline. - **Middle East.** Flotek flags conflict and logistics risk for deliveries to the region. ## What are the key facts to verify? - The Q2 2026 [results release](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/928054/000092805426000077/ex991-q22026.htm) for first-half numbers and related-party revenue. - The September 9 [guidance raise](https://ir.flotekind.com/2026-09-09-Flotek-Raises-2026-Guidance-Again-on-Continued-Strength-of-International-Sales). - The August 18 [Puerto Rico update](https://ir.flotekind.com/2026-08-18-Flotek-Industries-Provides-Update-on-Puerto-Rico-Power-Project-and-Reaffirms-its-Full-Year-2026-Guidance). ## What would prove it right or wrong? **Right:** Q3 2026 adjusted EBITDA near or above Q2's $16.8 million, another guidance raise, and international chemistry tracking toward $40 million for the half. **Wrong:** Q3 lands inside the implied $12 million to $14 million quarterly pace, related-party volumes fall, or new disclosures back Wolfpack's view of weak diligence. *This is journalism and commentary, not investment advice. We hold no position unless stated.* ## Questions readers ask **What does Flotek Industries (FTK) do?** Flotek Industries, Inc. (NYSE: FTK) sells specialty chemistry and real-time data and measurement services, mainly to the energy industry. In Q2 2026, Flotek's Data Analytics segment produced 51% of company gross profit. **What is the call on Flotek stock?** Kingdom Capital Advisors wrote on October 21, 2026 that Flotek's second-half 2026 guidance seems "extremely sandbagged," implying room for results to beat. Kingdom Capital did not state a position. **What is Flotek's 2026 guidance?** On September 9, 2026, Flotek raised its 2026 guidance to revenue of $360 million to $370 million and adjusted EBITDA of $50 million to $54 million. It was the second raise after an August 4 increase to $340 million to $350 million of revenue. **Why do some investors think Flotek's guidance is conservative?** Flotek earned $25.9 million of adjusted EBITDA in the first half of 2026, including $16.8 million in Q2. The full-year range implies only $24.1 million to $28.1 million in the second half, or about $12 million to $14 million a quarter, by our math. **Why is Wolfpack Research short Flotek?** Wolfpack Research disclosed a short on Flotek on August 17, 2026, arguing that its $400 million Puerto Rico power contract had been canceled and that Flotek missed red flags about its partner. PREPA formally terminated the contract on August 18, 2026; Flotek said it had received no revenue and that its guidance excluded the project. **How has Flotek stock performed since the Wolfpack report?** Flotek closed at $35.83 on August 14, 2026, before the report, and at $25.10 on October 21, 2026, a 30% decline. Its closing high this year was $38.82 on August 11, 2026. **What is Kingdom Capital's track record?** In our tracking, Kingdom Capital is 4-14 on 18 calls scored at 180 days against the S&P 500, with an average edge of -17.3 points, ranked 11th on the career table. Its last 10 scored calls went 2-8. **What are the biggest risks for Flotek?** Flotek depends heavily on related-party sales, with $49.1 million of its $80.2 million Q2 2026 chemistry revenue from related parties. Other risks include Middle East delivery disruptions, shareholder class actions over the Puerto Rico disclosures and the credibility hit from that contract. **Did a Flotek director buy $34 million of stock?** A Form 4 for director Matthew Wilks shows THRC Holdings acquired 1,319,493 Flotek shares from ProFrac GDM on September 11, 2026 at $26.01, about $34.3 million, in exchange for canceling term loans. That was a transfer between existing holders, not an open-market purchase. **What would prove the Flotek bull case right or wrong?** Q3 2026 adjusted EBITDA near or above Q2's $16.8 million and another guidance raise would support the bull case on Flotek. Results inside the implied $12 million to $14 million quarterly pace, or lower related-party volumes, would support the skeptics.