# Intermex (IMXI): Can a 66% Deal Spread Survive California by November 10? > Western Union agreed to buy Intermex (IMXI) for $16.00 a share in cash, yet the stock closed at $9.66 on October 19, 2026. A special-situations investor is still long. We explain California's suspended approval, the November 10 outside date, who is betting on a close and who thinks the spread is right. By MCAFax · Published October 20, 2026 Section: Markets & Main Street › From Wall Street · Series: Market Calls, Investigated (https://mcafax.com/notebook/series/market-calls-investigated) Canonical: https://mcafax.com/notebook/imxi-intermex-western-union-california-spread-nov-10-deadline Source: MCAFax, The Broker's Notebook (https://mcafax.com/notebook). MCAFax is not a lender or a law firm. --- International Money Express (Nasdaq: IMXI), the remittance company known as Intermex, closed at $9.66 on October 19, 2026, far below the $16.00 per share in cash that Western Union agreed to pay. Special-situations investor Rod Alzmann is long the spread and thinks the deal is more likely than not to close. The open question is whether California's financial regulator reinstates its approval before the November 10, 2026 outside date. *This is journalism and commentary, not investment advice. We hold no position unless stated.* ## Key facts - **Ticker and exchange:** International Money Express, Inc., IMXI, Nasdaq. - **Situation type:** merger arbitrage; an all-cash takeover by Western Union (NYSE: WU) signed August 10, 2025. - **The call:** long, from Rod Alzmann (@RodAlzmann), who now holds a small position after cutting it in half near $11.50. - **The spread:** $16.00 versus a $9.66 close on October 19, 2026, a gross gap of $6.34, or about 66%. - **What's left:** reinstated approval from California's Department of Financial Protection and Innovation (DFPI) and a new federal antitrust waiting period. - **Key date:** November 10, 2026, when either side can walk away, as automatically extended under the merger agreement. - **Main risk:** California never reinstates its approval and the deal dies, leaving a shrinking business. ## Is IMXI a good bet right now? The case for IMXI is a 65.6% gross return if the deal closes at $16.00. The case against is that the market is pricing a large chance the deal fails, and Intermex would likely fall if it does. Rod Alzmann has put a number on that downside. In a September 24, 2026 [reply](https://x.com/RodAlzmann/status/2103215506903675349), he wrote that Intermex would trade "with a six handle" in a break, meaning somewhere in the $6 range. ## Why are investors bullish on Intermex? - **Almost everything is done.** An October 2, 2026 [8-K](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1683695/000114036126038416/ef20083225_8k.htm) says all regulatory approvals have been obtained except the California DFPI approval and a new Hart-Scott-Rodino waiting period. - **Shareholders already voted yes.** Intermex stockholders approved the merger on December 9, 2025, according to the company's [second-quarter 10-Q](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1683695/000162828026055191/imxi-20260630.htm). - **California approved once.** The DFPI extended its approval on July 31, 2026, then suspended that extension on August 13, citing the six months since the original approval, both companies [said](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260813834323/en/Western-Union-and-Intermex-Provide-Update-on-Pending-Acquisition). - **Both sides say they are committed.** Western Union and Intermex said they intend to close promptly after reinstatement. ## Who's making this call and why? Rod Alzmann describes himself as a private investor in special situations whose tax edge differs from his readers'. He held Intermex before the deal and sold near $16 in 2025. On September 24, 2026 he [wrote](https://x.com/RodAlzmann/status/2103215733207679033): "I'm long, I think it's more likely than not that it closes." On October 1 he [cut](https://x.com/RodAlzmann/status/2105683778853036065) his position by about half near $11.50, citing uncertainty and the tight calendar. On October 20 he [said](https://x.com/RodAlzmann/status/2112345584111636504) he still holds a small allocation of under 1% of his portfolio. **Track record.** In our tracking, Rod Alzmann is 5-5 (a .500 win rate) on 10 calls scored at 180 days against the S&P 500, with an average edge of about -19.02 percentage points. He is unranked on the career table. See the [scoreboard](https://mcafax.com/notebook/market-calls-scoreboard). **Other voices:** - **Japan Deep Value (@JapanDeepValue1)**, a Japan value investor, [wrote](https://x.com/JapanDeepValue1/status/2112256923328532582) on October 19: "Not sure I have ever seen a spread this large with so many boxes ticked already." - **Essential (@essential6t7)**, an anonymous account that tracks the California review, [argued](https://x.com/essential6t7/status/2100383938086662387) that the state's change-of-control test covers character, competence and compliance, not competition: "I expect a negotiated package, not a block." On October 19 the account [added](https://x.com/essential6t7/status/2112241548511576566) that Western Union's deal financing expires November 10: "Delay isn't free." ## Who disagrees? - **The price itself.** Niko (@lngspt) [wrote](https://x.com/lngspt/status/2102758115955417159) in September: "if the spread is pricing the deal as dead, usually there's a good reason for it." - **A new regulator.** The [ArbLens](https://www.arblens.com/blog/weekly-024.html) newsletter summarized an October 12 CTFN report linking the pause to new leadership above the DFPI, including Rohit Chopra, the former CFPB director. ArbLens dropped IMXI from its top ideas, writing that "a 55% spread already prices a high chance of failure." Intermex fell from $12.67 to $10.87 that day. - **A weaker business.** Second-quarter 2026 revenue fell to $131.2 million from $161.1 million a year earlier, and net income fell to $4.2 million from $11.0 million, per the 10-Q. - **The break fee may not help.** The 10-Q describes a $27.3 million fee Western Union would pay if the deal ends over antitrust problems. It is not clear from the filing whether a California licensing refusal would trigger it. ## What are the key facts to verify? - The [October 2, 2026 8-K](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1683695/000114036126038416/ef20083225_8k.htm) on the refiled HSR notice and the DFPI status. - The [August 13, 2026 update](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260813834323/en/Western-Union-and-Intermex-Provide-Update-on-Pending-Acquisition) quoting the DFPI letter. - The [second-quarter 10-Q](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1683695/000162828026055191/imxi-20260630.htm) for the $16.00 price, the November 10 outside date and the termination fees. ## What would prove it right or wrong? **Right:** the DFPI reinstates its approval, possibly with fee or location conditions, the HSR period ends, and the deal closes at $16.00. **Wrong:** California stays silent past November 10, Western Union lets the agreement lapse, or the price is cut. *This is journalism and commentary, not investment advice. We hold no position unless stated.* ## Questions readers ask **What does International Money Express (IMXI) do?** International Money Express (Nasdaq: IMXI), known as Intermex, is a money transmitter that sends funds from the United States, Canada, Spain, Italy and Germany, mainly to Mexico, Guatemala and other Latin American countries, through a network of retail agents. Intermex reported second-quarter 2026 revenue of $131.2 million. **What is the Western Union deal for Intermex (IMXI)?** Western Union agreed on August 10, 2025 to buy Intermex for $16.00 per share in cash. Intermex stockholders approved the deal on December 9, 2025, and the remaining approvals are California's DFPI and a new federal antitrust waiting period. **Why does IMXI trade so far below the $16.00 deal price?** California's Department of Financial Protection and Innovation suspended its extended approval of the Intermex deal on August 13, 2026, saying it needed to review the transaction further. Intermex closed at $9.66 on October 19, 2026, a gross spread of about 66% to the $16.00 price. **What is the market call on Intermex (IMXI)?** Special-situations investor Rod Alzmann is long Intermex and wrote on September 24, 2026 that he thinks the Western Union deal is more likely than not to close. He cut his position by about half near $11.50 on October 1 and still held a small allocation on October 20. **What is Rod Alzmann's track record?** In our tracking, Rod Alzmann is 5-5 (a .500 win rate) on 10 calls scored at 180 days against the S&P 500, with an average edge of about -19.02 percentage points, and he is unranked. His long call on Intermex (IMXI) is a merger-arbitrage bet on the Western Union deal closing at $16.00. **When is the deadline for the Intermex (IMXI) deal?** The merger agreement lets either Western Union or Intermex terminate if the deal has not closed by November 10, 2026, as automatically extended to obtain certain regulatory approvals. Intermex and Western Union refiled under the Hart-Scott-Rodino Act on October 2, 2026, starting a new 30-day waiting period. **Who disagrees with the Intermex (IMXI) arbitrage?** The ArbLens newsletter dropped Intermex from its top ideas after an October 12 report tied California's pause to new leadership, writing that a 55% spread already priced a high chance of failure. Niko (@lngspt) wrote in September that a spread pricing a deal as dead usually has a good reason. **What happens to Intermex (IMXI) if the deal breaks?** Rod Alzmann has said Intermex would trade in the $6 range if the Western Union deal fails. Intermex's second-quarter 2026 revenue fell to $131.2 million from $161.1 million, so the standalone business is shrinking. **Would Western Union pay Intermex a break fee?** The Intermex 10-Q describes a $27.3 million fee Western Union would pay if the deal ends because of antitrust restraints or failed antitrust approvals, and a $19.8 million fee Intermex would owe in specified cases. The filing does not make clear whether a California licensing refusal would trigger Western Union's fee. **What would prove the Intermex (IMXI) call right or wrong?** The Intermex call is right if the DFPI reinstates its approval, the HSR waiting period ends and Western Union pays $16.00 in cash. It is wrong if California stays silent past November 10, Western Union lets the agreement lapse, or the price is cut.