# MGM Resorts (MGM): A $1.4 Billion Buyback vs. a Stock 36% Below the $48.30 Bid

> MGM Resorts closed at $31.02 on November 3, 2026, about 36% below the $48.30 a share People Inc. offered in June. A special situations investor on X says the company itself, with $1.4 billion of buyback authorization left, is now the marginal buyer. Falling Las Vegas room rates, heavy rent and Japan spending are the counterpoints.

By MCAFax · Published November 5, 2026
Section: Markets & Main Street › From Wall Street · Series: Market Calls, Investigated (https://mcafax.com/notebook/series/market-calls-investigated)
Canonical: https://mcafax.com/notebook/mgm-mgm-resorts-buyback-below-people-bid
Source: MCAFax, The Broker's Notebook (https://mcafax.com/notebook). MCAFax is not a lender or a law firm.

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MGM Resorts International (NYSE: MGM) fell after People Inc. withdrew its $48.30-a-share takeover proposal on September 23, 2026, and again on weak Las Vegas results. In the third quarter, Las Vegas Strip EBITDAR fell 12% to $531 million and the average daily room rate fell 8% to $218, while occupancy held at 89%. Management blamed higher airfares and weaker visitation. The stock closed at $31.02 on November 3, 2026, still down about 18% from $37.85 on September 23.

## Questions readers ask

**Why is MGM Resorts stock down in 2026?**

MGM Resorts (MGM) reported revenue of $4.2 billion, down 1%, and a net loss of $17 million. Adjusted EPS was a loss of $0.11 against a $0.24 profit a year earlier. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA fell to $403 million from $506 million.

**What did MGM Resorts report for the third quarter of 2026?**

MGM Resorts (MGM) had $1.4 billion remaining under its $2.0 billion repurchase plan at September 30, 2026, according to its 10-Q. By our math that is about 18% of its market value at the November 3, 2026 close of $31.02. The company bought no shares in the third quarter.

**How much stock can MGM Resorts buy back?**

Management said on the October 29, 2026 earnings call that repurchases were on hold while the People Inc. situation was open, and that it has now concluded. Chief executive Bill Hornbuckle said of the episode, "We are done."

**Why didn't MGM Resorts buy back stock in the third quarter?**

People Inc. proposed on June 1, 2026 to buy the MGM Resorts (MGM) shares it did not own for $48.30 each in cash and withdrew the proposal on September 23, 2026. People Inc. still owns about 26% of the company. MGM's November 3, 2026 close of $31.02 is about 36% below that offer price.

**What was People Inc.'s offer for MGM Resorts?**

Under the agreement amended in late October 2026, People Inc. cannot buy shares that take it above 29.9% of MGM Resorts (MGM), but company buybacks that push it higher are not a breach. Votes above 25.73% are cast in proportion to other holders on most matters, and People Inc. votes with the board on change-of-control matters.

**What does the amended People Inc. voting agreement say?**

A Capital, an anonymous special situations account on X, called MGM Resorts (MGM) "absurdly cheap" near $29 on October 30, 2026, arguing the company itself will be the marginal buyer. Agon Investments estimated a base case near $47 a share. JPMorgan rates the stock Overweight with a $39 target.

**Who is bullish on MGM Resorts stock?**

Morgan Stanley rates MGM Resorts (MGM) Underweight with a $29 target, cut from $43 on October 19, 2026. Skeptics point to falling Las Vegas room rates, about $1 billion a year of Japan spending in 2027 and 2028, and rent costs that one X investor puts near $1.8 billion a year in cash.

**Who is bearish on MGM Resorts stock?**

MGM Osaka is the integrated resort MGM Resorts (MGM) is building in Japan. Management said on the October 29, 2026 call that it is about 11% complete and targets a 2030 opening, with about $1 billion a year of Japan spending expected in 2027 and 2028. Chief financial officer Jonathan Halkyard said its value could easily exceed $4.1 billion.

**What is MGM Osaka and when will it open?**

MGM Resorts (MGM) reported about $5.7 billion of long-term debt and $2.4 billion of cash at September 30, 2026. It has $675 million of notes due within 12 months, and management said its revolving credit line was undrawn.

**How much debt does MGM Resorts have?**

The case for MGM Resorts (MGM) is helped if the company buys back a large slice of stock near current prices, Las Vegas room rates stop falling and MGM China keeps gaining share. It is hurt if Vegas profit keeps shrinking and debt-funded buybacks squeeze funding for Osaka.