{"updated":"2026-10-31","skill":"fantasy","version":"1.0","tests":[{"date":"2026-10-27","compared":"Injury-status rule (Doubtful as Out, Questionable at a flat rate, and practice-conditional rates) on skill positions, 2021-25 train, 2025 and 2026 weeks 1-7 holdout. Played means at least one offensive snap.","metric":"Brier score of predicted versus actual active rate.","winner":"Doubtful as Out (0.4% played, n=263) and a Questionable base rate of about 62% beat treating Questionable as 50% (Brier 0.2445 vs 0.25 in 2025; 0.2412 vs 0.25 in 2026). Practice-conditional rates did not reliably beat the flat rate. Not published."},{"date":"2026-10-27","compared":"3-week weighted opportunity (WOPR) against 3-week points and last-week points, for WR and TE, 2023-25, n=5,921.","metric":"Spearman rank with next-3-week half-PPR points.","winner":"3-week WOPR. It won all 3 seasons (0.724/0.705/0.710 versus last-week points 0.566/0.540/0.565). Not published."},{"date":"2026-10-27","compared":"Three rising RB snap-share weeks against a one-week spike, 2023-25.","metric":"Precision of a next-3-week top-24 finish.","winner":"No winner. Leaning, not proven. Rising beat the spike in 2 of 3 seasons, and both trailed the 45.9% base rate."}],"micro_skills":[],"next":{"name":"FAAB bid bands from measured waiver claims","date_queued":"2026-10-28","compared":"Bid bands priced as a percent of budget with stated win odds, against the current fantasy skill waiver method, using past claims.","metric":"Not run. The queue says to backtest before changing anything."},"research_bar":"No micro skills meet the research bar yet.","market_calls":null,"trades_leaderboard":""}