{"updated":"2026-10-31","skill":"finance","version":"1.8","tests":[{"date":"2026-10-27","compared":"Stacking-clause spotter (lab routine v1 and v2) against the keyword champion, on a dev set and a held-out set of public excerpts.","metric":"Recall and false-alarm rate. Bar: at least 90% recall and under 10% false alarms on both sets.","winner":"No winner. Neither routine beat the other and passed both sets. Not shipped."},{"date":"2026-10-27","compared":"APR estimate methods an instruction can carry out, against a spreadsheet IRR on 30 worked offers.","metric":"Absolute error versus the reference schedule. Tolerance 0.5 percentage points as the floor.","winner":"No winner. Every method an instruction can carry out failed. Not shipped as an APR."},{"date":"2026-10-27","compared":"Confession-of-judgment detector against the keyword champion, on 30 dev excerpts and 30 held-out excerpts.","metric":"Recall and precision. Output rules: disclaimer, ask a lawyer, no unsourced state rules, no links.","winner":"Provisional only. Dev recall 95% versus the keyword champion at 70%. Not shipped. A second human label pass was still required."},{"date":"2026-10-27","compared":"Advance-fee offer screen (frozen v2) against a keyword baseline, on 30 held-out texts.","metric":"Held-out recall and false-alarm rate. Bar: recall over 90% and false alarms under 5%.","winner":"No winner. Held-out recall 86.7% (13/15) and false alarms 13.3% (2/15). Not shipped."},{"date":"2026-10-27","compared":"Five-question grant screen against the tells list in the grant-fee guide, on 40 mixed items.","metric":"Accuracy, and zero scam items scored legitimate. Bar: at least 90% and no scam scored legitimate.","winner":"No winner. Both arms failed the bar. Not shipped."},{"date":"2026-10-30","compared":"California AB 2116 licensing note against the California row on the state-disclosure guide.","metric":"How many of 6 owner questions the page can answer. Champion had 0 hits for 2116, license, and 2028.","winner":"Challenger, 6/6 versus 2/6. Not published. The live guide was left unchanged."},{"date":"2026-10-30","compared":"1West Small Business Health Index Q3 2026 against four skill-grade market-data criteria.","metric":"Pass count on primary-and-dated, whose pool it measures, whether it is a vendor release, and whether the method stayed comparable.","winner":"Champion. The index passed 1 of 4. Not added."},{"date":"2026-10-28","compared":"Polymarket negative-risk market-making paper test against the trades gate.","metric":"IC proxy t at least 3 and Sharpe at least 1.","winner":"No winner. HOLD. IC proxy t -0.81, Sharpe -0.14. Not added."},{"date":"2026-10-30","compared":"OpenEvolve against the SPY seed strategy. Lab only.","metric":"Sharpe. Seed Sharpe 0.789.","winner":"No winner. Seed not beaten in 12 iterations. Not added."}],"micro_skills":[{"id":"FIN-22","name":"Look up a caller's number or email","description":"One-identifier lookup in the broker directory.","example_prompt":"Who is calling me from this number?","cited_url":"https://mcafax.com/directory","status":"kept","source":"MCAFax broker directory (174 shops, 1,849 contacts, built 2026-10-26).","cadence":"Built 2026-10-26. A daily pass at 09:15 UTC hides a contact not re-checked within 365 days.","route":"GET /v1/lookup","tests":"No lab record tests this micro skill.","version":"1.8"},{"id":"FIN-24","name":"Show who is behind an offer","description":"Lead-map lookup of one identifier.","example_prompt":"Who's behind this offer email?","cited_url":"https://mcafax.com/whos-behind-this-offer","status":"kept","source":"Same MCAFax broker directory as the caller lookup.","cadence":"Same as the caller lookup. A daily pass at 09:15 UTC hides a contact not re-checked within 365 days.","route":"GET /v1/lead-map/lookup","tests":"No lab record tests this micro skill.","version":"1.8"},{"id":"FIN-32","name":"Run the weekly call-log refresh","description":"Pull changes, re-run Unknown lookups.","example_prompt":"Refresh my call log","cited_url":"https://mcafax.com/directory/changes","status":"kept","source":"MCAFax directory change log.","cadence":"A row is added when a correction or dispute is filed. A daily pass at 09:15 UTC hides a contact not re-checked within 365 days and writes a change-log line when that hidden count grows.","route":"GET /v1/changes","tests":"No lab record tests this micro skill.","version":"1.8"},{"id":"FIN-39","name":"Show today's top trades with the disclaimer","description":"Day list from the feed; disclaimer last, word for word.","example_prompt":"What are today's top trades?","cited_url":"https://mcafax.com/trades","status":"kept","source":"MCAFax paper-trades feed.","cadence":"Morning publish at 14:08 Asia/Jerusalem, plus a grace period, on the next New York trading day.","route":"GET /v1/trades/top","tests":"No lab record tests this micro skill.","version":"1.8"},{"id":"FIN-40","name":"Show options or long-term lists","description":"Same feed with list=options or long_term.","example_prompt":"Show the long-term trades list","cited_url":"https://mcafax.com/trades","status":"kept","source":"Same paper-trades feed as FIN-39.","cadence":"Same 14:08 Asia/Jerusalem publish clock as FIN-39.","route":"GET /v1/trades/top?list=options and GET /v1/trades/top?list=long_term","tests":"No lab record tests this micro skill.","version":"1.8"},{"id":"FIN-41","name":"Show the market-call leaderboard","description":"Who has been right among analysts.","example_prompt":"Which analysts have been right?","cited_url":"https://mcafax.com/calls/leaderboard","status":"kept","source":"MCAFax market-calls leaderboard. As of 2026-10-30. A call is scored 180 days after the post, against the S&P 500.","cadence":"The market-calls files are updated daily. This copy is as of 2026-10-30.","route":"https://mcafax.com/calls/leaderboard","tests":"No lab record tests this micro skill.","version":"1.8"}],"next":{"name":"SoFi in-house small-business loans","date_queued":"2026-10-28","compared":"Whether the SoFi page still describes SoFi as referral-only, against the report that SoFi originated small-business loans in-house in Q3 2026.","metric":"Not set. The queue says to check the page. No result yet."},"research_bar":"","market_calls":{"as_of":"2026-11-05","generated_at":"2026-11-05T16:38:31-06:00","method":"A call wins when, 180 days after the post, the stock beat the S&P 500 in the direction the investor called (a long must outperform the index, a short must underperform it). Edge is the gap versus the S&P 500 in percentage points. Price at call is the last close known at the time of the post (Yahoo Finance daily bars, split-adjusted, in the listing currency). Track records cover calls from roughly the past year.","primary_view":"career","min_ranked":15,"career":[{"rank":"1","name":"Wolfpack Research","handle":"WolfpackReports","calls_scored":15,"wins":11,"losses":4,"win_pct_label":".733","avg_excess":21.56,"score":89.36},{"rank":"2","name":"Tim Eriksen","handle":"eriksen_tim","calls_scored":21,"wins":15,"losses":6,"win_pct_label":".714","avg_excess":21.76,"score":84.32},{"rank":"3","name":"Spruce Point Capital","handle":"sprucepointcap","calls_scored":17,"wins":11,"losses":6,"win_pct_label":".647","avg_excess":10.37,"score":75.07},{"rank":"4","name":"Kerrisdale Capital","handle":"KerrisdaleCap","calls_scored":16,"wins":10,"losses":6,"win_pct_label":".625","avg_excess":14.86,"score":74.19},{"rank":"5","name":"Colin King","handle":"valuedontlie","calls_scored":19,"wins":11,"losses":8,"win_pct_label":".579","avg_excess":35.14,"score":59.45},{"rank":"6","name":"Deep Sail Capital","handle":"DeepSailCapital","calls_scored":25,"wins":13,"losses":12,"win_pct_label":".520","avg_excess":8.94,"score":57.24},{"rank":"7","name":"Z","handle":"ZeeContrarian1","calls_scored":23,"wins":12,"losses":11,"win_pct_label":".522","avg_excess":3.65,"score":56.67},{"rank":"8","name":"Mikro Kap David","handle":"david_katunaric","calls_scored":19,"wins":7,"losses":12,"win_pct_label":".368","avg_excess":-7.16,"score":29.68},{"rank":"9","name":"Brandon Beylo","handle":"marketplunger1","calls_scored":21,"wins":5,"losses":16,"win_pct_label":".238","avg_excess":51.73,"score":13.63},{"rank":"10","name":"Dalius - Special Sits","handle":"InvestSpecial","calls_scored":20,"wins":4,"losses":16,"win_pct_label":".200","avg_excess":-11.74,"score":7.11},{"rank":"11","name":"Kingdom Capital","handle":"kingdomcapadv","calls_scored":18,"wins":4,"losses":14,"win_pct_label":".222","avg_excess":-17.27,"score":5.45}],"season_rank_1":{"rank":"1","name":"Deep Sail Capital","handle":"DeepSailCapital","calls_scored":25,"wins":13,"losses":12,"win_pct_label":".520","avg_excess":8.94,"score":57.24}},"trades_leaderboard":"The live board is GET /v1/trades/leaderboard. The published fallback list does not contain a winner."}