Colin King (@valuedontlie) stock calls: track record, win rate and every call
As of October 8, 2026, MCAFax has logged 30 calls from Colin King (@valuedontlie): 27 bullish, 0 bearish and 3 neutral. Career record on scored calls: 11-8 (.579 win rate), averaging +35.1 points versus the S&P 500 per call. Leaderboard status: Ranked #3 (career).
Not investment advice; for research and education.
Stat line
| View | Calls scored | W-L | Win % | Avg edge vs S&P | Best call | Worst call | Streak | Last 10 | Longs | Shorts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Career | 19 | 11-8 | .579 | +35.1 | BW +688.2 | APTV -40.8 | W1 | 4-6 | 11-8 | 0-0 |
| Season (trailing 12 months) | 14 | 8-6 | .571 | +2.4 | OKE +30.0 | APTV -40.8 | W1 | 4-6 | 8-6 | 0-0 |
Calls scored counts directional calls at least 180 days old, with repeats counted once. Edge is in percentage points versus the S&P 500. Streak and Last 10 run in date order, most recent last.
Ranked or unranked?
Career: Ranked #3 (career). 9 players are ranked on the career board. Season (trailing 12 months): Unranked (season): 14 of the 15 scored calls needed, 1 to go.
A player needs at least 15 scored calls in a view to be ranked. See the leaderboard.
Style and specialty
- Style: special situations / value
- Why we track this account: Publishes stock write-ups and a newsletter; covers spin-offs, CVRs, odd-lot exchange offers and buyouts with numbers; also runs a small-business holding company.
- What to keep in mind: Promotes his own newsletter; holding-company returns he cites (~35x over ~a decade) are self-reported.
- Followers on X: 12,452 (checked Oct 8, 2026)
- MCAFax status: Rotation roster (featured in the daily Market Calls piece)
Current calls (open)
| Date | Ticker | Call | Price at call | Current / outcome | Result | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 | MDT | Bullish (long) | $86.38 | Open; scored 180 days after the post | Open (not yet scored) | post |
| Oct 2, 2026 | THRM | Neutral / watch | $33.63 | Open; scored 180 days after the post | Watch only (neutral calls are not scored) | post |
| Sep 30, 2026 | CALM | Bullish (long) | $68.06 | Open; scored 180 days after the post | Open (not yet scored) | post |
| Sep 30, 2026 | SSTI | Neutral / watch | $8.21 | Open; scored 180 days after the post | Watch only (neutral calls are not scored) | post |
| Sep 30, 2026 | LFCR | Neutral / watch | $6.59 | Open; scored 180 days after the post | Watch only (neutral calls are not scored) | post |
| Sep 27, 2026 | GEN | Bullish (long) | $21.62 | Open; scored 180 days after the post | Open (not yet scored) | post |
| Sep 27, 2026 | THNC.TO | Bullish (long) | 2.17 CAD | Open; scored 180 days after the post | Open (not yet scored) | post |
| Sep 25, 2026 | GDOT | Bullish (long) | $12.25 | Open; scored 180 days after the post | Open (not yet scored) | post |
What the open calls argue, in our own words:
- MDT (bullish, Oct 5, 2026): MDT-for-MMED exchange offer at a ~7% discount with an odd-lot provision (99 shares); spread has narrowed.
- THRM (neutral, Oct 2, 2026): Post-spin THRM (Reverse Morris Trust) screens cheap at under 6x EBITDA.
- CALM (bullish, Sep 30, 2026): Egg-cycle supply response is fast, so Cal-Maine returns to profit soon; trades near 1.15x book.
- SSTI (neutral, Sep 30, 2026): SSTI buyout: $8 cash plus a $3 CVR while the stock trades at $8.20.
- LFCR (neutral, Sep 30, 2026): LFCR buyout at $6.28 cash plus a CVR worth up to $3.39; stock ~$6.60 prices the CVR at ~30 cents.
- GEN (bullish, Sep 27, 2026): GEN fell ~30% on its approach to buy GDDY; he owns shares.
- THNC.TO (bullish, Sep 27, 2026): Thinkific restructuring ($19m savings on ~$100m cap) could take it to ~5.5x FCF with half the cap in net cash.
- GDOT (bullish, Sep 25, 2026): GDOT deal close slipping from Q3 to Q4 on regulatory approvals; still long through the delay.
Scored calls (game log)
| Date | Ticker | Call | Price at call | Current / outcome | Result | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | DNOW | Bullish (long) | $11.57 | $16.12 on Sep 4, 2026 | W, +24.8 pts vs S&P 500 (180 days) | post |
| Feb 3, 2026 | SXP.TO | Bullish (long) | 3.64 CAD | 3.70 CAD on Aug 4, 2026 | L, -9.2 pts vs S&P 500 (180 days) | post |
| Feb 3, 2026 | KBR | Bullish (long) | $42.52 | $37.09 on Aug 3, 2026 | L, -21.7 pts vs S&P 500 (180 days) | post |
| Feb 3, 2026 | TFX | Bullish (long) | $103.36 | $139.70 on Aug 3, 2026 | W, +26.2 pts vs S&P 500 (180 days) | post |
| Jan 18, 2026 | TAP | Bullish (long) | $48.95 | $41.61 on Jul 20, 2026 | L, -22.2 pts vs S&P 500 (180 days) | post |
| Jan 14, 2026 | APTV | Bullish (long) | $88.25 | $59.23 on Jul 13, 2026 | L, -40.8 pts vs S&P 500 (180 days) | post |
| Jan 8, 2026 | VSNT | Bullish (long) | $33.27 | $37.39 on Jul 7, 2026 | W, +4.0 pts vs S&P 500 (180 days) | post |
| Jan 2, 2026 | BAX | Bullish (long) | $19.11 | $21.69 on Jul 1, 2026 | W, +4.2 pts vs S&P 500 (180 days) | post |
| Dec 31, 2025 | BDX | Bullish (long) | $153.81 | $155.19 on Jun 29, 2026 | L, -7.0 pts vs S&P 500 (180 days) | post |
| Dec 6, 2025 | CMCSA | Bullish (long) | $25.60 | $23.33 on Jun 4, 2026 | L, -19.2 pts vs S&P 500 (180 days) | post |
| Dec 6, 2025 | CNK | Bullish (long) | $21.95 | $30.81 on Jun 4, 2026 | W, +30.0 pts vs S&P 500 (180 days) | post |
| Nov 28, 2025 | ZD | Bullish (long) | $32.82 | $45.73 on May 27, 2026 | W, +29.5 pts vs S&P 500 (180 days) | post |
| Nov 10, 2025 | DOLE | Bullish (long) | $13.14 | $15.21 on May 11, 2026 | W, +5.6 pts vs S&P 500 (180 days) | post |
| Nov 3, 2025 | OKE | Bullish (long) | $67.00 | $90.63 on May 4, 2026 | W, +30.0 pts vs S&P 500 (180 days) | post |
| Aug 15, 2025 | STRZ | Bullish (long) | $12.24 | $8.66 on Feb 12, 2026 | L, -35.2 pts vs S&P 500 (180 days) | post |
| Aug 15, 2025 | PRKS | Bullish (long) | $53.26 | $35.80 on Feb 11, 2026 | L, -40.1 pts vs S&P 500 (180 days) | post |
| Aug 7, 2025 | SDZ.SW | Bullish (long) | 50.52 CHF | 60.42 CHF on Feb 3, 2026 | W, +10.6 pts vs S&P 500 (180 days) | post |
| Jul 24, 2025 | ATNI | Bullish (long) | $18.73 | $21.93 on Jan 20, 2026 | W, +10.2 pts vs S&P 500 (180 days) | post |
| Jul 21, 2025 | BW | Bullish (long) | $1.04 | $8.28 on Jan 20, 2026 | W, +688.2 pts vs S&P 500 (180 days) | post |
Archive calls not yet scored
In their own words
- MDT (Oct 5, 2026): "this odd lot spread narrowed a bunch..."
- THRM (Oct 2, 2026): "RMT now trading below 6x EBITDA"
- CALM (Sep 30, 2026): "CALM will be back to profitability within 2 quarters."
- SSTI (Sep 30, 2026): "Stock trading at $8.20 with $8 cash + $3 CVR"
- LFCR (Sep 30, 2026): "Stock trading around $6.60 so paying ~30c for the optionality today"
Related pages
How we score these calls
A call wins when, 180 days after the post, the stock beat the S&P 500 in the direction the investor called (a long must outperform the index, a short must underperform it). Edge is the gap versus the S&P 500 in percentage points. Price at call is the last close known at the time of the post (Yahoo Finance daily bars, split-adjusted, in the listing currency). Track records cover calls from roughly the past year.
Last updated: October 8, 2026
Not investment advice; for research and education.
FAQ
What is @valuedontlie's stock-picking track record?
Career record on scored calls: 11-8 (.579 win rate), averaging +35.1 points versus the S&P 500 per call. MCAFax has logged 30 calls from this account as of October 8, 2026.
What is @valuedontlie's win rate?
.579 on 19 scored calls in the career view (11-8). A win means the call beat the S&P 500 in the called direction over 180 days.
Is @valuedontlie ranked on the MCAFax leaderboard?
Ranked #3 (career). Players need 15 scored calls to be ranked.
What was @valuedontlie's best call?
BW (long, posted Jul 21, 2025), which finished +688.2 points versus the S&P 500 after 180 days.
What was @valuedontlie's worst call?
APTV (long, posted Jan 14, 2026), which finished -40.8 points versus the S&P 500 after 180 days.
What stocks is @valuedontlie calling right now?
Open calls: CALM (bullish), GDOT (bullish), GEN (bullish), LFCR (neutral), MDT (bullish), SSTI (neutral), THNC.TO (bullish), and THRM (neutral).
What kind of investor is @valuedontlie?
Style: special situations / value. Publishes stock write-ups and a newsletter; covers spin-offs, CVRs, odd-lot exchange offers and buyouts with numbers; also runs a small-business holding company.
Does @valuedontlie make more bullish or bearish calls?
Of 30 logged calls, 27 are bullish, 0 bearish and 3 neutral. Scored record by side: longs 11-8, shorts 0-0.
How does MCAFax score these calls?
A call wins when, 180 days after the post, the stock beat the S&P 500 in the direction the investor called (a long must outperform the index, a short must underperform it). Edge is the gap versus the S&P 500 in percentage points. Price at call is the last close known at the time of the post (Yahoo Finance daily bars, split-adjusted, in the listing currency). Track records cover calls from roughly the past year.
Is this investment advice?
No. This page is journalism and research for education. It reports what this investor said publicly and how those calls performed.