Lincoln Educational Services Corporation (Nasdaq: LINC) trains students for skilled trades, automotive, health and IT careers across 22 campuses. Kuppy (@hkuppy), CIO of Praetorian Capital, says he is long LINC and Universal Technical Institute (UTI) because trade schools should benefit if artificial intelligence pushes people out of desk jobs. Lincoln's latest quarter showed revenue up 22.4%, while skeptics remember how for-profit education blowups such as ITT Tech ended.
This is journalism and commentary, not investment advice. We hold no position unless stated.
Key facts
- Ticker and exchange: Lincoln Educational Services Corporation, LINC, Nasdaq.
- Situation type: Growth-and-theme long on U.S. for-profit trade schools.
- The call: Kuppy (@hkuppy) says he is long LINC (and UTI) on an AI-to-trades re-skilling thesis.
- Price: LINC closed at $23.49 on October 9, 2026.
- Latest results: Q2 2026 revenue was $142.6 million, up 22.4% year over year; Adjusted EBITDA was $12.7 million, up 42.4%, per Lincoln's August 10, 2026 release.
- Students: Ending student population was about 18,900, up 10.4%; Q2 student starts rose only 1%, though management still guides 10% to 14% full-year start growth.
- 2026 Guidance (reiterated): Revenue $590 million to $600 million; Adjusted EBITDA $76 million to $80 million.
- Main risk: For-profit education regulation, start-conversion softness, and historical sector failures such as ITT Tech / ESI.
Is LINC a good bet right now?
That depends on whether employer demand for trades keeps lifting enrollments, and whether Title IV and other rules stay workable for Lincoln Educational.
The bull case is that AI and data-center buildouts raise wages for electricians and HVAC techs while Lincoln's model scales. The bear case is that for-profit schools have blown up before when complaints and regulators arrived.
Why are investors bullish on Lincoln Educational?
- Kuppy's theme is blunt. In an October 10, 2026 post, he wrote: "It's called trade schools, and they're about to print money as everyone figures this out at the same time. $LINC and $UTI (we're long)".
- He has been adding. In an October 10 interview clip post, Kuppy said that at the 43-minute mark he explains why he has been adding so much to the trade-school position in LINC and UTI.
- Operating numbers are strong. Lincoln reported Q2 revenue of $142.6 million (+22.4%), Adjusted EBITDA of $12.7 million (+42.4%), and about $143 million of total liquidity at June 30, 2026.
- Management still guides growth. Lincoln reiterated 10% to 14% student-start growth for 2026 and pointed to a large August class after a soft Q2 conversion from enrollment to first-day starts.
Who's making this call and why?
Kuppy (@hkuppy) is CIO of Praetorian Capital, with about 182,000 followers on X. He writes about event-driven and special-situation investing on Kuppy's Korner and often posts thematic stock ideas.
His LINC thesis, also laid out in a July 7, 2026 post, is that the United States needs to re-skill millions of workers and that early movers get high wages because of shortages. He argues a few thousand extra students matter a lot for a high-fixed-cost campus business.
Track record. In our tracking of Kuppy's public calls, he is 5-4 (a .556 win rate) on 9 calls scored at 180 days against the S&P 500, with an average edge of +9.0 percentage points. Three newer calls are 1-2 on a provisional basis. With fewer than 15 matured calls he remains unranked on our scoreboard.
Other supporters:
- Drake on Digital (@drakeondigital) said he likes LINC best among the names because it is more focused on skilled trades such as plumbing, HVAC and heavy equipment.
- Giovanni Zibordi (@GiovanniZibordi) argued that private technical schools such as LINC and UTI stand to benefit as AI and data centers force mass re-skilling.
Who disagrees?
- @Idea_eXplosion replied to Kuppy by recalling the ESI / ITT Tech collapse: "I got caught in the ESI (ITT Tech) fiasco a decade ago... Thoughts on how $LINC and $UTI are different?" The user said online reviews still show complaints.
- Lincoln's own Q2 commentary noted that Q2 start growth slowed to 1% because fewer enrolled students attended the first day of class, even though enrollment grew about 9%. That is an internal warning on conversion, not an outside short.
- Sector regulation remains a structural overhang for any Title IV for-profit educator, including cohort default rates and the 90/10 rule, which Lincoln lists among risk factors in its releases.
What are the key facts to verify?
- Lincoln's Q2 2026 release: revenue, Adjusted EBITDA, student population, starts and reiterated guidance.
- Campus expansion: Suitland, Maryland lease for Electrical and HVAC training (expected opening in Q4 2027) and the $18.8 million Melrose Park, Illinois property purchase.
- Whether August and fall starts recover toward the 10% to 14% full-year target.
- UTI as the peer Kuppy pairs with LINC, for relative valuation and regulatory news.
- Any Department of Education or accreditation actions affecting Lincoln Educational.
What would prove it right or wrong?
Signals the call is working:
- Student starts re-accelerate into the guided 10% to 14% band.
- Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA track the $590 million to $600 million and $76 million to $80 million ranges.
- Employer demand for graduates stays high and new focused-program campuses open on plan.
Signals it is failing:
- Start conversion stays weak and full-year start growth misses.
- Regulatory or accreditation pressure hits Title IV access.
- A repeat of past for-profit education blowups, as the ITT Tech analogy warns.
This is journalism and commentary, not investment advice. We hold no position unless stated.