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Market Calls, Investigated

Market Calls Scoreboard: Who Actually Beats the S&P 500 on X

We scored public stock calls from investors on X against the S&P 500 at 180 days. Kerrisdale Capital leads the career table; Deep Sail Capital leads the season.

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Market Calls, Investigated · Markets & Main Street

Kerrisdale Capital leads our career scoreboard of investors on X at 10-5 (.667), ahead of Spruce Point Capital and Colin King; Deep Sail Capital leads the season table. Each public stock call counts as a game: it wins if, 180 days later, the stock beat the S&P 500 in the direction called.

By MCAFax. Last updated: October 11, 2026

How it's scored

  • Calls: games played. Each specific, dated public stock call on X with a clear side (long or short) is one game.
  • W-L: a call wins if, 180 days after the post, the stock beat the S&P 500 in the called direction. A long that rose 5% while the index rose 10% is a loss.
  • Win %: wins divided by calls (.600 means 6 of 10).
  • Avg Edge: average gap versus the S&P 500 per call, in percentage points. Shorts are flipped, so a stock that fell while the index rose earns a positive edge.
  • Streak and Last 10: the current run of wins (W) or losses (L), and the record over the 10 most recent scored calls.
  • Rank: win % (as a number out of 100) plus average edge, with each call's edge capped at +50 or -50 points so one outlier cannot decide the table. A player needs 15 scored calls to be ranked.

Career Ranked

All matured calls posted from October 1, 2024 onward, including back-tested calls from each player's public post history.

Rank Player Calls W-L Win % Avg Edge Streak Last 10 Longs/Shorts
1 Kerrisdale Capital @KerrisdaleCap 15 10-5 .667 +16.2 W2 7-3 L 4-3 / S 6-2
2 Spruce Point Capital @sprucepointcap 17 11-6 .647 +10.4 W2 6-4 L 0-0 / S 11-6
3 Colin King @valuedontlie 19 11-8 .579 +35.1 W1 4-6 L 11-8 / S 0-0
4 Deep Sail Capital @DeepSailCapital 25 13-12 .520 +8.9 L2 2-8 L 4-8 / S 9-4
5 Z @ZeeContrarian1 23 12-11 .522 +3.6 L2 5-5 L 6-9 / S 6-2
6 Mikro Kap David @david_katunaric 19 7-12 .368 -7.2 W1 4-6 L 7-12 / S 0-0
7 Brandon Beylo @marketplunger1 21 5-16 .238 +51.7 L1 3-7 L 4-15 / S 1-1
8 Dalius - Special Sits @InvestSpecial 20 4-16 .200 -11.7 L4 1-9 L 2-16 / S 2-0
9 Kingdom Capital @kingdomcapadv 18 4-14 .222 -17.3 L1 2-8 L 4-12 / S 0-2

Season Ranked

Matured calls posted on or after October 11, 2025 (trailing 12 months). Calls need 180 days to mature, so this view fills in over time.

Rank Player Calls W-L Win % Avg Edge Streak Last 10 Longs/Shorts
1 Deep Sail Capital @DeepSailCapital 25 13-12 .520 +8.9 L2 2-8 L 4-8 / S 9-4
2 Z @ZeeContrarian1 23 12-11 .522 +3.6 L2 5-5 L 6-9 / S 6-2
3 Brandon Beylo @marketplunger1 21 5-16 .238 +51.7 L1 3-7 L 4-15 / S 1-1
4 Kingdom Capital @kingdomcapadv 18 4-14 .222 -17.3 L1 2-8 L 4-12 / S 0-2
5 Dalius - Special Sits @InvestSpecial 16 2-14 .125 -21.7 L4 1-9 L 0-14 / S 2-0

Under review (fewer than 15 scored calls)

Career stats for players who have not yet reached 15 scored calls. Small samples swing a lot, so they are not ranked.

Player Calls W-L Win % Avg Edge
Wolfpack Research @WolfpackReports 14 10-4 .714 +21.3
Kreuzmann @Kreuzmann13 13 8-5 .615 +20.9
Japan Deep Value @JapanDeepValue1 13 5-8 .385 -3.0
John Huber @JohnHuber72 11 5-6 .455 +9.6
Evan Tindell @evantindell 11 5-6 .455 -2.2
FuzzyPanda @FuzzyPandaShort 11 3-8 .273 -8.8
Clark Square Capital @ClarkSquareCap 10 5-5 .500 +3.7
Rod Alzmann @RodAlzmann 10 5-5 .500 -19.0
Kuppy @hkuppy 9 5-4 .556 +9.0
Stoic Point Capital Management @stoic_point 9 5-4 .556 +9.1
Morpheus Research @MorpheusRes 7 3-4 .429 -14.8
MuddyWatersResearch @muddywatersre 5 3-2 .600 -8.0

For the individual call write-ups, see the Market Calls, Investigated series.

Not investment advice. Records reflect public posts we logged and scored; they may be incomplete.

Data method: each call is scored over a 180-calendar-day window (next trading day if the 180th day is not one), from the last close before the post, against the S&P 500 (^GSPC) over the same dates. Scoring window starts October 1, 2024. Calls younger than 180 days are not counted. Prices are Yahoo Finance daily closes, split-adjusted and excluding dividends; latest closes used are from October 9, 2026. Repeat posts of the same call count once.

Questions readers actually ask

How are calls scored?

We take the stock's last closing price before the post and its closing price 180 days later, and compare that move with the S&P 500 over the same dates. The gap, in percentage points, is the call's edge. For short calls we flip the sign, so a stock that falls while the market rises earns a positive edge.

What counts as a win?

A call wins when the stock beat the S&P 500 in the direction the investor called after 180 days: a long had to outperform the index, and a short had to underperform it. Merger-arbitrage calls are judged at deal close. Simply going up is not enough. A long that rose 5% while the index rose 10% is a loss.

What counts as a call?

A public post on X that names a specific ticker and takes a clear side: long, short, or a price target. We skip jokes, news reposts, questions and vague mentions. If an investor repeats a call, it counts once, at the first post. Switching sides counts as a new call.

Why isn't someone ranked?

A player needs at least 15 scored calls in a view to be ranked. Below that, a few lucky or unlucky picks can swing the numbers too much, so we list them as under review and still show their stats for transparency.

How is the ranking order decided?

By a rating that combines how often a player wins and by how much: win percentage (as a number out of 100) plus average edge, with each call's edge capped at +50 or -50 points so one huge winner or loser cannot decide the table on its own.

What's the difference between Season and Career, and how often is it updated?

Career includes every matured call posted since October 1, 2024, including back-tested calls taken from each player's public post history. Season includes only calls posted in the trailing 12 months. A call needs 180 days to mature, so recent calls join the tables about six months after they are posted. We re-score as new calls mature, and the page shows its last-updated date.

Is this investment advice?

No. This is journalism about public market commentary and how it played out. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Past results do not predict future ones, dividends and trading costs are ignored, and deleted posts cannot be counted, so records may look better than reality.

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MCAFax was built to do the thing you can't do from inside the room: make the phone stop. Check any broker against our member-built database, send cease & desist letters from your own Gmail, and build the paper trail. Some laws, like the TCPA, put statutory damages on illegal calls — whether they apply to your calls depends on your situation, and business lines get less protection than home ones. It's free, and we're not a law firm.

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