Comcast Corporation (Nasdaq: CMCSA) plans to spin off NBCUniversal and Sky into a separate public company in about a year, and the stock has slid to roughly $20. Colin King (@valuedontlie), a special-situations investor on X, wrote on October 13, 2026 that he is tempted to buy Comcast call options expiring in January 2029, betting the split gives both companies time to be valued on their own. The next checkpoint is Comcast's third-quarter report on October 22, 2026.
This is journalism and commentary, not investment advice. We hold no position unless stated.
Key facts
- Ticker and exchange: Comcast Corporation, CMCSA, Nasdaq.
- Situation type: Pending tax-free spin-off of NBCUniversal and Sky, announced June 29, 2026 and expected in about one year (mid-2027 is widely cited).
- The call: Colin King (@valuedontlie) leans long through January 2029 call options; he described it as a temptation, not a confirmed position.
- Price: CMCSA closed at $20.68 on October 12, 2026, down from $28.01 at the end of 2025.
- His math: A June 30, 2026 sum-of-the-parts sketch valued Comcast near $33 a share when the stock was about $24.
- Catalysts: Third-quarter 2026 results on October 22, 2026; completion of the spin-off in roughly mid-2027.
- Main risk: Broadband customer losses and price cuts as fiber, fixed wireless and SpaceX push into Comcast's markets.
Is CMCSA a good bet right now?
That depends on whether the split exposes value the market is ignoring, or whether Comcast's broadband engine shrinks faster than the conglomerate discount closes.
At $20.68, Comcast trades on a low earnings multiple. Bears argue the multiple is low because the core business is losing customers and pricing power.
Why are investors bullish on Comcast?
- The split is official. Comcast's June 29, 2026 announcement says shareholders will own both Comcast (broadband, wireless and business services) and NBCUniversal (Universal theme parks, studios, NBC, Telemundo, Peacock, Bravo and Sky). Comcast plans to keep up to 19.9% of NBCUniversal for up to one year.
- Sum of the parts. In a June 30, 2026 post, King put 5x EBITDA on roughly $30.5 billion of cable EBITDA and 9x on about $5.8 billion of media EBITDA, subtracted about $86 billion of net debt, and divided by 3.57 billion shares to reach about $33.
- Cash still flows. Comcast generated $4.6 billion of free cash flow in the second quarter of 2026, according to its earnings call, and Peacock posted its first quarterly profit.
- Wireless is growing. Comcast added 448,000 domestic wireless lines in the quarter, its best result on record, per its Q2 2026 release.
Who's making this call and why?
Colin King (@valuedontlie) is a value and special-situations investor with about 12,460 followers on X. He writes a stock newsletter and often covers spin-offs, contingent value rights and odd-lot offers.
On October 13, 2026, King wrote, "Tempted to buy some $CMCSA Jan 2029 calls..." He noted that options expiring in January 2029 would run about 18 months past a mid-2027 spin, leaving time for the two companies to trade separately. He called his own June math "absurdly simplistic," which is a fair warning about precision.
Track record. In our tracking, King is 11-8 (a .579 win rate) on 19 calls scored at 180 days against the S&P 500, with an average edge of +35.1 percentage points and a median of +4.2. One outsized winner drives that average; without it, the average edge is roughly -1.1 points. Five newer calls are 3-2 on a provisional basis. See the scoreboard.
Another supporter:
- Lee Roach (@leevalueroach), a small and micro-cap value investor, wrote on September 8, 2026 that "Comcast $CMCSA looks dirt cheap" on a sum-of-the-parts view. CMCSA has fallen about 22% since the $26.49 close before that post.
Who disagrees?
- KeyBanc Capital Markets downgraded Comcast to Underweight with an $18 price target on September 25, 2026, forecasting broadband losses of 558,000 customers in 2026 and 665,000 in 2027. Analyst Brandon Nispel said the firm does not "view the spin-off of NBCU as a catalyst".
- Brian Dean (@randomlybrian) of Pine Creek Capital called Comcast cheap at about 6.2x expected earnings but wrote, "I'd want to see revenue per customer stop falling before I'd call this a floor."
- New competition. SpaceX's October 2026 spectrum deal and plan to become a major U.S. mobile carrier hit telecom and cable stocks. CMCSA touched a 52-week low of $20.48 on October 9, 2026.
- No buyback support. Comcast paused share repurchases on July 1, 2026 and expects them to stay paused through the separation.
What are the key facts to verify?
- Spin-off terms and conditions, including tax opinions, regulatory approvals and financing, in the June 29, 2026 release.
- How net debt is split between Comcast and NBCUniversal once the company discloses it.
- Second-quarter 2026 domestic broadband net losses of 167,000 and broadband revenue per user down 3.8%, per the Q2 release and call.
- Third-quarter 2026 broadband results on October 22, 2026 versus KeyBanc's forecast of a 140,000 loss.
What would prove it right or wrong?
Signals the call is working:
- Broadband losses narrow and revenue per customer stops falling.
- The separation closes on time with both companies holding investment-grade ratings.
- The combined value of Comcast and NBCUniversal shares moves toward King's roughly $33 estimate before January 2029.
Signals it is failing:
- Broadband losses track or beat KeyBanc's 2026 and 2027 forecasts.
- The spin-off slips, or the debt split leaves either company stretched.
- CMCSA stays near or below $20, which would leave long-dated calls with little value at expiry.
This is journalism and commentary, not investment advice. We hold no position unless stated.