STAAR Surgical Company (Nasdaq: STAA), maker of the EVO implantable lenses used to correct nearsightedness, trades well below the $30.75 cash price Alcon agreed to pay before shareholders voted the deal down in January 2026. Z (@ZeeContrarian1), a special-situations investor on X, says he is still a big holder, pointing to a new $50 million buyback and a Stifel upgrade. The next test is STAAR's third-quarter report, where China seasonality and cash conversion will be under the microscope.
This is journalism and commentary, not investment advice. We hold no position unless stated.
Key facts
- Ticker and exchange: STAAR Surgical Company, STAA, Nasdaq.
- Situation type: A standalone story after a rejected takeover, with a buyback and an analyst upgrade as fresh catalysts.
- The call: Z is long, citing the buyback and "the recent analyst upgrade."
- Price: STAA closed at $21.67 on October 9, 2026; its 2026 closing range runs from $16.10 in February to $33.34 in May.
- Deal history: Alcon raised its offer from $28.00 to $30.75 per share in December 2025; on January 6, 2026, holders cast 14,904,915 votes for and 27,339,877 against.
- Balance sheet: $181.5 million of cash and investments and no debt at July 3, 2026, with about 50.1 million shares outstanding.
- Latest quarter: Second-quarter 2026 net sales of $93.5 million, up 111%, with China at $52.3 million and net income of $8.1 million.
Is STAA a good bet right now?
The case for is simple arithmetic: at the October 9 close, STAAR's market value is roughly $1.09 billion, and about $181.5 million of that is cash. A profitable lens maker gaining share, now buying back its own stock, trades about 30% below the price a strategic buyer was willing to pay ten months ago.
The case against is that shareholders who rejected $30.75 have since watched the stock trade as low as $16.10, and the business still depends heavily on China, where distributor inventory swings wrecked results in 2025. Nothing here is a recommendation; it is a question of whether the standalone plan closes the gap.
Why is Z still holding STAAR after the failed sale?
Z's October 2 post put it plainly: "I'm still a big holder of $STAA , especially with the buyback and the recent analyst upgrade." The two catalysts check out:
- Buyback. On September 24, 2026, STAAR's board authorized up to $50 million of repurchases, and CEO Warren Foust said the company is "currently substantially undervalued."
- Upgrade. Stifel moved to Buy on September 29 and lifted its target to $31 from $28, citing the shift to higher-priced EVO+ lenses in China. Its target assumes 3.5 times enterprise value to sales versus roughly 2.0 to 2.5 times today.
- Share gains. STAAR says its U.S. growth comes from share gains while laser vision correction declines. Z summed it up: "So basically $STAA keeps taking market share in a declining market."
Who's making this call and why?
Z describes himself on X as a former Wall Street professional focused on special situations; that background is self-reported. He first laid out the thesis in March 2026, calling STAAR "a classic contrarian setup" in a post. He has also leaned on the conviction of STAAR's largest holder, Broadwood Partners, which he notes has been invested for more than 30 years. On October 11 he recapped: "$STAA: Bought at $17.50, now $22 (reached $35)."
Track record. In our tracking of Z's public calls, he is 12-11 (a .522 win rate) on 23 calls scored at 180 days against the S&P 500, with an average edge of +3.6 percentage points. Seven newer calls are 6-1 on a provisional basis. See the Market Calls scoreboard.
Who disagrees?
Most of Wall Street is still on the fence. In the same Investing.com report, Jefferies held a Hold rating with a $28 target and Piper Sandler stayed at Neutral with a $33 target. Second-quarter adjusted earnings of $0.16 a share also missed the $0.22 analysts expected.
The balance sheet raises a sharper question. Trade receivables nearly doubled to $98.5 million at July 3, 2026 from $50.1 million at the start of the year, and operating cash flow for the first half was negative $2.0 million despite $13.3 million of net income. China is over half of revenue, and the company says the third and fourth quarters are now seasonally softer there.
Even Z has admitted the stock has baffled him, writing, "I'm not sure what happened with $STAA."
What are the key facts to verify?
- The second-quarter 2026 results, including receivables, cash flow and China sales.
- The shareholder vote results and the amended merger terms at $30.75.
- How much of the $50 million buyback STAAR actually executes.
- Third-quarter sales against the adjusted $68.8 million base the company says excludes a one-time 2024 order.
- Whether tariff costs fade once all China-bound lenses ship from Switzerland, which STAAR expects by the end of 2026.
What would prove it right or wrong?
Right: Third-quarter sales beat the $68.8 million adjusted base, receivables convert to cash, the buyback shrinks the share count, and EVO+ lifts China pricing into 2027.
Wrong: China orders slump again, receivables keep climbing, cash burns despite reported profit, or the buyback goes largely unused.
This is journalism and commentary, not investment advice. We hold no position unless stated.