@marginofdanger stock calls: track record, win rate and every call
As of November 5, 2026, MCAFax has logged 5 calls from @marginofdanger: 4 bullish, 0 bearish and 1 neutral. None of these calls has been scored yet, so there is no win-loss record. Leaderboard status: Unranked (no scored calls yet).
Not investment advice; for research and education.
Stat line
| View | Calls scored | W-L | Win % | Avg edge vs S&P | Best call | Worst call | Streak | Last 10 | Longs | Shorts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Career | 0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Season (trailing 12 months) | 0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Calls scored counts directional calls at least 180 days old, with repeats counted once. Edge is in percentage points versus the S&P 500. Streak and Last 10 run in date order, most recent last.
Ranked or unranked?
Unranked. A player needs 15 scored calls to be ranked, and @marginofdanger has none yet.
A player needs at least 15 scored calls in a view to be ranked. See the leaderboard.
Style and specialty
- Style: special situations / value
- Why we track this account: Followed by north-star Kingdom Capital; posts specific small-cap cash and capital-allocation takes on X.
- What to keep in mind: Unknown real name / fund affiliation on X.
- Followers on X: 7,455 (checked Oct 19, 2026)
- MCAFax status: Tracked voice (not on the daily rotation)
Current calls (open)
| Date | Ticker | Call | Price at call | Current / outcome | Result | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | BWEL | Neutral / watch | $587.05 | Open; scored 180 days after the post | Watch only (neutral calls are not scored) | post |
| Oct 15, 2026 | TIPT | Bullish (long) | $16.90 | Open; scored 180 days after the post | Open (not yet scored) | post |
| Apr 13, 2026 | BWEL | Bullish (long) | $592.80 | $550.00 on Jul 13, 2026 | Open (reiteration, counted once) | post |
| Feb 23, 2026 | BWEL | Bullish (long) | $491.71 | $538.20 on May 26, 2026 | Open (reiteration, counted once) | post |
| Dec 31, 2025 | BWEL | Bullish (long) | $458.66 | $545.00 on Apr 1, 2026 | Open (not yet scored) | post |
What the open calls argue, in our own words:
- BWEL (neutral, Oct 15, 2026): Flags J.G. Boswell annual meeting next week after dividend restored to $5/quarter, a large buyback and new C-suite hires (constructive tone, no stated position).
- TIPT (bullish, Oct 15, 2026): Argues Tiptree trades at about 70% of cash value after a ~10% drop with no good reason, as a source of funds while small caps revalue.
- BWEL (bullish, Apr 13, 2026): Pistachio prices soaring on the Iran conflict; every $1k/acre change in pistachio acreage value is ~$20/share.
- BWEL (bullish, Feb 23, 2026): Dividend raised back to $5/share; reads it as a signal the bottom has passed and FY26 should improve.
- BWEL (bullish, Dec 31, 2025): Top idea for 2026 at $459 (low risk / high reward): ~$40mm adj. EBITDA in a bad crop year, maturing pistachio orchards, land FMV ~$15k/acre vs ~$3k creation value.
In their own words
- BWEL (Oct 15, 2026): "Will be interesting!"
- TIPT (Oct 15, 2026): "$TIPT is trading at 70% of cash value."
- BWEL (Apr 13, 2026): "Every $1k/acre change in Pistacho acreage valuation is around $20/share."
- BWEL (Feb 23, 2026): "Probably a strong signal we have passed the bottom."
- BWEL (Dec 31, 2025): "JG Boswell has been the deep value stock that even the most disciplined investors have lost patience with (including yours truly!)."
Related pages
- Market-calls leaderboard
- Ticker pages: BWEL, TIPT
How we score these calls
A call wins when, 180 days after the post, the stock beat the S&P 500 in the direction the investor called (a long must outperform the index, a short must underperform it). Edge is the gap versus the S&P 500 in percentage points. Price at call is the last close known at the time of the post (Yahoo Finance daily bars, split-adjusted, in the listing currency). Track records cover calls from roughly the past year.
Last updated: November 5, 2026
Not investment advice; for research and education.
FAQ
What is @marginofdanger's stock-picking track record?
None of these calls has been scored yet, so there is no win-loss record. MCAFax has logged 5 calls from this account as of November 5, 2026.
What is @marginofdanger's win rate?
There is no win rate yet because none of @marginofdanger's logged calls has been scored.
Is @marginofdanger ranked on the MCAFax leaderboard?
Unranked (no scored calls yet). Players need 15 scored calls to be ranked.
What was @marginofdanger's best call?
There is no best call yet because no call has been scored.
What was @marginofdanger's worst call?
There is no worst call yet because no call has been scored.
What stocks is @marginofdanger calling right now?
Open calls: BWEL (bullish), BWEL (neutral), and TIPT (bullish).
What kind of investor is @marginofdanger?
Style: special situations / value. Followed by north-star Kingdom Capital; posts specific small-cap cash and capital-allocation takes on X.
Does @marginofdanger make more bullish or bearish calls?
Of 5 logged calls, 4 are bullish, 0 bearish and 1 neutral.
How does MCAFax score these calls?
A call wins when, 180 days after the post, the stock beat the S&P 500 in the direction the investor called (a long must outperform the index, a short must underperform it). Edge is the gap versus the S&P 500 in percentage points. Price at call is the last close known at the time of the post (Yahoo Finance daily bars, split-adjusted, in the listing currency). Track records cover calls from roughly the past year.
Is this investment advice?
No. This page is journalism and research for education. It reports what this investor said publicly and how those calls performed.