Bitdeer Technologies Group (Nasdaq: BTDR), a Singapore-based Bitcoin miner that is turning part of its power into AI data centers, closed at $9.26 on October 12, 2026, down from $13.14 on September 21. Special-situations investor Z (@ZeeContrarian1) has argued since August 31, 2026 that Bitdeer's mining works with Bitcoin near $75,000 and that its AI leases are an underpriced option, with a conditional path to $50 a share. Unusually, he has also said publicly that the position has lost him money and that he trimmed it on October 11, 2026.
This is journalism and commentary, not investment advice. We hold no position unless stated.
Key facts
- Ticker and exchange: Bitdeer Technologies Group, BTDR, Nasdaq.
- Situation type: Contrarian long on a Bitcoin miner converting some power to AI and high-performance computing.
- The call: Z (@ZeeContrarian1) has been long since August 31, 2026; on October 11, 2026 he said he reduced exposure but BTDR is "still a big holding".
- Price: BTDR closed at $9.26 on October 12, 2026, versus $10.32 on August 28, the last close before his first post.
- Mining (as of August 2026): Bitdeer mined 1,310 Bitcoin in August, up 249% from a year earlier, with 79.9 EH/s of self-mining hash rate.
- AI lease: A 16-year, 121 IT MW lease at Tydal, Norway worth about $4.7 billion, with phase 1 targeted for December 31, 2026 and phase 2 for March 31, 2027.
- Main risk: Losses and funding needs. Bitdeer lost $251.8 million in the first half of 2026.
Is BTDR a good bet right now?
Bulls see a miner producing real Bitcoin plus contracted AI rent that the market does not credit. Bears see a company that posted a $92.3 million net loss and an $8.5 million gross loss in the second quarter of 2026 while borrowing and selling shares.
Bitdeer is highly sensitive to Bitcoin. Bitcoin closed near $81,760 on October 12, 2026, above the roughly $75,000 level Z uses as his base case.
Why are investors bullish on Bitdeer?
- Mining without a bull market. On August 31, 2026 Z wrote, "The important point is that Bitcoin does not need another spectacular bull market for the mining business to work."
- Power already online. Z says Bitdeer has about 1.75 GW online and nearly 3 GW including its pipeline, and that waiting for better AI terms is a strength: "There is no reason to rush."
- Contracted AI revenue. Tydal averages about $202 per kW per month, and Bitdeer says its 9.5 MW A102 site in Malaysia is fully contracted for more than $800 million of expected revenue. On October 13, 2026 Bitdeer announced an eight-year deal for a 60 MW A103 facility in Malaysia, with power expected in the first quarter of 2028.
- A famous holder. Stanley Druckenmiller's Duquesne Family Office reported 4,074,993 BTDR shares worth about $64.67 million at June 30, 2026, in its 13F filing.
Who's making this call and why?
Z (@ZeeContrarian1) describes himself as a former Wall Street professional focused on special situations and has about 47,800 followers on X. On September 19, 2026 he posted, "If you believe Bitcoin is going to $200,000, $BTDR is going to $50." He added that if both Bitcoin and AI power demand deliver, he sees $80.
On October 11, 2026 he wrote, "The only stock that has crashed since I initially recommended it is $BTDR." He listed his entry near $11.
Track record. In our tracking, Z is 12-11 (a .522 win rate) on 23 calls scored at 180 days against the S&P 500, with an average edge of +3.7 percentage points and a median of +6.3. Seven newer calls are 6-1 on a provisional basis. His BTDR calls are logged from August 31, 2026, with later posts counted as reiterations. See the scoreboard.
Other supporters:
- Ben Brown (@burrenwaffettt) sketched a case in which about 1,500 Bitcoin a month at $80,000 plus Tydal rent yields more than $1 billion of yearly cash flow, writing, "However, if these assumptions materialize, BTDR's current valuation appears exceptionally compressed." He named Bitcoin prices, execution and capital access as the swing factors.
- Matthew Sigel (@matthew_sigel), head of digital assets research at VanEck per his bio, estimated Tydal could return roughly 30% a year on Bitdeer's investment. He opened that October 5, 2026 analysis with, "$BTDR outperforming most neos and powered shell cos this morning in a weak tape."
Who disagrees?
- The tenant can leave. Sigel also flagged that Volta can exit the Tydal lease free after year 10 and that the site must be built on time. Bitdeer's own release confirms a no-fee termination right at 10 years.
- Losses and dilution. Bitdeer's second-quarter financing came from $517.3 million of net proceeds from borrowings and at-the-market share sales. It had about 271.8 million Class A and Class V shares outstanding on June 30, 2026.
- Market doubts. An automated TipRanks note on October 7, 2026 tied the slide to rising Treasury yields and doubts about Bitdeer's AI pipeline.
What are the key facts to verify?
- Second-quarter 2026 results, including cash and debt.
- The Tydal lease terms.
- The August 2026 production update.
- How Bitdeer funds the remaining roughly $500 million of Tydal capital spending.
What would prove it right or wrong?
Signals the call is working:
- Bitcoin holds near or above $75,000 while monthly output stays above 1,200 Bitcoin.
- Tydal phase 1 starts on schedule and project debt is raised on good terms.
- Bitdeer signs another large lease.
Signals it is failing:
- Bitcoin falls well below $75,000.
- More share sales dilute holders before cash flow arrives.
- Tydal slips or Volta's credit support falls through.
This is journalism and commentary, not investment advice. We hold no position unless stated.