The Mosaic Company (NYSE: MOS), a major U.S. producer of phosphate and potash fertilizer, closed at $18.85 on October 12, 2026, down from $30.99 a year earlier. Special-situations investor Rod Alzmann (@RodAlzmann) asked on October 10, 2026 how low Mosaic goes before it bottoms, citing possible removal from the S&P 500, year-end tax-loss selling and sulfur supplies still stuck behind the Strait of Hormuz. His plan is a two-step timing call: he is weighing a bet on a drop into the mid-teens over the next few months, then switching to a long position, likely in the first quarter.
This is journalism and commentary, not investment advice. We hold no position unless stated.
Key facts
- Ticker and exchange: The Mosaic Company, MOS, New York Stock Exchange.
- Situation type: Near-term short with a planned flip to long, in a cyclical fertilizer stock squeezed by input costs.
- The call: Rod Alzmann (@RodAlzmann) turned near-term bearish on October 10, 2026, without stating a position size.
- Price: MOS closed at $18.85 on October 12, 2026, versus $21.55 on October 1, 2026 and $37.81 on July 2, 2025.
- Second quarter 2026: Revenue of $2.8 billion, a net loss of $273 million and adjusted EBITDA of $407 million. Third-quarter sulfur contracts settled at $705 per long ton.
- Analysts: RBC Capital cut Mosaic to Sector Perform with a $25 target on October 5, 2026.
- Main risk to the short: Any reopening of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could lift fertilizer stocks quickly.
Is MOS a good bet right now?
Alzmann's view is about timing, not about whether Mosaic survives. He expects selling pressure to build through year-end and sees a better entry after that.
The case for owning Mosaic now is that potash is still profitable. The Potash segment earned $195 million of operating earnings in the second quarter of 2026 on a $275 per tonne selling price.
The case against is that Phosphate lost $104 million in the same quarter as Mosaic cut production.
Why are investors bearish on Mosaic?
- Sulfur. CEO Bruce Bodine said second-quarter conditions were "driven primarily by sulfur availability and affordability challenges," per the company's results release.
- The downgrade. RBC Capital said the phosphate turnaround could stretch into mid-2027 and saw downside risk to 2027 estimates, per Investing.com. RBC also warned Mosaic's cheaper contracted sulfur advantage could shrink once the strait reopens.
- Potash headlines. On September 21, 2026, President Trump said the U.S. was working on a large potash purchase from Belarus, and fertilizer stocks fell, per an Investing.com post.
- Index risk. Alzmann wrote that the AI model Claude put the odds near 4-in-5 that Mosaic leaves the S&P 500 by March. That is not an official forecast, and S&P Dow Jones Indices has announced no change.
- Tax-loss selling. With MOS down about 39% in a year, some holders may sell before December 31 to book losses.
Who's making this call and why?
Rod Alzmann describes himself as a private investor focused on special situations and has about 23,800 followers on X. On October 10, 2026 he asked, "How low does $MOS trade before bottoming?"
In a follow-up reply he said he was "considering trying to make money on a dump into the mid teens over the next few months, before shifting long likely in 1Q". He added that the turn should show up first in sulfur futures prices as volumes return.
Track record. In our tracking, Rod Alzmann is 5-5 (a .500 win rate) on 10 calls scored at 180 days against the S&P 500, with an average edge of -19.0 percentage points, and he is unranked because he has fewer than 15 scored calls. His MOS post is logged as a short. See the scoreboard.
Other supporters:
- EscapeFromUtopia (@utopia_escape), a writer whose bio says the account covers metals and energy but is not expert advice, warned on October 1, 2026 that Mosaic's next results could be negative at current sulfur prices and could threaten the dividend, concluding, "I maintain MOS is a buy, but not yet."
- Long River Holding (@longriverCM), a cash-flow-focused value account, wrote on October 13, 2026, "Cheap fertilizer stocks can get cheaper when margins and cash flow deteriorate." Long River also laid out the bull case and is watching normalized free cash flow.
Who disagrees?
- JC Denton Capital (@JCDentonCapital) replied to Alzmann, "Timing it could be hard because I'd expect them as well as CF and NTR to re-rate violently upward on any positive SoH news".
- Price targets sit higher. RBC's $25 target and KeyBanc's $26 target, set when it started coverage at Sector Weight, are both well above the $18.85 close. Not every target is higher: Freedom Broker cut Mosaic to Sell with a $17 target, per the same Investing.com report.
- Management's plan. Mosaic says it can resume full production when markets improve, cut 2026 capital spending to $1.20 billion and expects free cash flow to improve through the rest of 2026.
What are the key facts to verify?
- Mosaic's third-quarter 2026 results and its fourth-quarter sulfur contract price.
- Whether the $0.22 quarterly dividend paid in the second quarter is maintained.
- Any S&P 500 changes announced by S&P Dow Jones Indices.
- Shipping status in the Strait of Hormuz and sulfur futures prices.
What would prove it right or wrong?
Signals the near-term short is working:
- MOS trades into the mid-teens before year-end.
- Phosphate losses widen in the third quarter.
- Mosaic is removed from the S&P 500.
Signals it is failing:
- Sulfur flows resume and fertilizer stocks re-rate.
- Sulfur futures prices inflect as volumes return, the signal Alzmann says he is watching to turn long.
- Potash prices hold and results beat expectations.
This is journalism and commentary, not investment advice. We hold no position unless stated.