Cal-Maine Foods (Nasdaq: CALM), the largest US egg producer, lost $58.6 million in its quarter ended August 29, 2026 as conventional egg prices fell 59.3% from a year earlier. Value investor Colin King (@valuedontlie) says that at about $60-65 a share, Cal-Maine Foods looks like an asymmetric bet over four to six quarters because egg supply corrects quickly. Cal-Maine Foods closed at $62.71 on October 13, 2026, about 1.1 times book value, with $767.6 million of cash and short-term investments.
This is journalism and commentary, not investment advice. We hold no position unless stated.
Key facts
- Ticker and exchange: Cal-Maine Foods, Inc., CALM, Nasdaq.
- Situation type: Contrarian commodity-cycle long on an egg producer after a price collapse.
- The call: Colin King is long, first posted on September 30, 2026 and reiterated on October 14, 2026.
- Results: First-quarter fiscal 2027 net sales fell 41.5% to $539.6 million, and the diluted loss was $1.26 a share versus a $4.12 profit a year earlier.
- Balance sheet: $767.6 million of cash and short-term investments and $2.58 billion of stockholders' equity as of August 29, 2026, with no debt line on the summary balance sheet.
- Valuation: 46.7 million weighted shares at $62.71 is about $2.93 billion, or 1.14 times equity, as of the October 13, 2026 close.
- Main risk: Nobody knows when egg prices recover, and Cal-Maine Foods pays no dividend until it recovers a $94.5 million cumulative loss.
Is CALM a good bet right now?
Book value works out to about $55.24 a share, and cash and short-term investments to about $16.44 a share. Net of that cash, the enterprise value is roughly $2.16 billion.
The case for is earning power. In the same quarter a year earlier, Cal-Maine Foods earned $199.3 million. The case against is timing: management said it cannot predict when the conventional egg market rebalances, and feed costs are rising.
Why are investors bullish on Cal-Maine Foods?
- Supply is shrinking. Chief Executive Sherman Miller cited a larger-than-expected cut to the US layer flock, fewer chicks hatched from breeder eggs and slightly lower monthly egg production, according to Food Dive.
- Demand is holding. Miller said US retail egg volume rose about 4% from January through August 2026.
- Less commodity exposure. Specialty eggs and prepared foods made up 54.1% of net sales, up from 37.1%.
- Buybacks. Cal-Maine Foods bought back $5.0 million of stock in the quarter and $14.9 million after it, with $315.7 million of authorization left.
Who's making this call and why?
Colin King (@valuedontlie) writes a stock newsletter, has about 12,460 followers on X and describes his approach as "All value. No advice." After the September 30, 2026 results, he argued the supply side moves fast and wrote, "CALM will be back to profitability within 2 quarters." Cal-Maine Foods closed at $68.06 that day.
On October 14, sharing an August write-up on Value Investors Club, he wrote that "at ~$60-65/sh it looks like an asymmetric bet with a 4-6 quarter time horizon". He did not say whether he owns shares.
Track record. In our tracking, Colin King is 11-8 (a .579 win rate) on 19 calls scored at 180 days against the S&P 500, with an average edge of +35.14 percentage points, ranking 3rd all time. One Babcock & Wilcox call lifts that average; his median edge is +4.18. His September 30 Cal-Maine Foods call was provisional at -7.5 points as of October 11. See the scoreboard.
Other supporters:
- Leveredturtle (@leveredturtle), who describes himself as a credit investor and said he does not own the stock, wrote that Cal-Maine Foods is "now at one of its cheapest P/B valuations in decades".
- Calvin Ott (@CalvinOtt3) estimated the egg business is "trading at ~$35 / layer hen capacity" after subtracting cash and prepared foods, versus about $57 a hen he sees as replacement value.
Who disagrees?
- Michael A. Gayed (@leadlagreport), an ETF portfolio manager, noted conventional eggs ran at a -35.2% operating margin and wrote, "Specialty cushions the cycle." His point is that specialty sales still fell 14%, so diversification does not end the cycle.
- Management's own caution. Miller said the supply signals "do not establish that the market will turn".
- No dividend. Under its variable dividend policy, Cal-Maine Foods paid nothing for the quarter.
- The early call is under water. Cal-Maine Foods is down from $68.06 on September 30 to $62.71.
What are the key facts to verify?
- Sales, losses, cash, equity, buybacks and the dividend rule in the September 30, 2026 results release.
- Flock, hatch and demand data cited by management in Food Dive's October 8, 2026 report.
- Monthly egg-price and layer-flock reports between now and the next quarterly results.
What would prove it right or wrong?
Signals the call is working:
- Conventional egg prices rise and Cal-Maine Foods returns to profit within two quarters.
- Layer-flock estimates keep falling.
- Prepared foods capacity, planned to grow more than 60% by the first half of fiscal 2028, adds earnings.
Signals it is failing:
- Losses continue into calendar 2027.
- Feed costs climb faster than egg prices.
- Book value erodes as losses mount.
This is journalism and commentary, not investment advice. We hold no position unless stated.