D-Wave Quantum Inc. (NYSE: QBTS), which builds and rents access to quantum computers, is still priced far above its sales, according to Deep Sail Capital (@DeepSailCapital), a long/short fund manager who renewed his short call on October 13, 2026. He says the company is worth about $5.2 billion, or 325 times revenue, against about $1.5 a share in cash. D-Wave's filings show revenue of about $12.4 million over the last four reported quarters, while bookings and remaining contracts are growing faster.
This is journalism and commentary, not investment advice. We hold no position unless stated.
Key facts
- Ticker and exchange: D-Wave Quantum Inc., QBTS, New York Stock Exchange.
- The call: Short. "80% downside still," per the October 13, 2026 post.
- Price: QBTS closed at $13.38 on October 13, 2026, down from $15.22 on October 7.
- Revenue: $3.1 million in the second quarter of 2026, about flat year over year; $5.9 million in the first half versus $18.1 million a year earlier, when a system sale added $13.7 million.
- Bookings: $35.5 million in the first half of 2026, up more than 1,120%, with $40.7 million of remaining performance obligations.
- Cash: $546.2 million of cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments on June 30, 2026, down 33% from a year earlier.
- Losses: A $53.3 million operating loss in the second quarter of 2026.
Is QBTS a good bet right now?
The fight is over time. D-Wave has a large cash pile, modest debt and fast-growing bookings, but revenue is small and lumpy. By our math, using 372.4 million shares (including exchangeable shares) and the $13.38 close, the market value is about $4.98 billion, roughly 400 times trailing revenue. The cash and investments work out to about $1.47 a share, close to the figure in the short call.
The bull case needs the booked system sales, including a $20 million system sale booked in the first half, to turn into recognized revenue. The bear case says even several years of growth would not justify today's price.
Why the short case is getting attention
- Valuation. By our math, an 80% drop from the $13.38 close would leave the stock near $2.68, still about 1.8 times its cash and investments per share.
- Cash burn. First-half operating expenses were $111.5 million, up 108%, partly from acquisition costs and higher pay.
- Shrinking cash. Cash and investments fell from $819.3 million a year earlier to $546.2 million; D-Wave says over 90% of the drop came from the cash paid for Quantum Circuits.
- Momentum fading. The stock fell about 12% in four trading sessions to October 13, 2026.
Who's making this call and why?
Deep Sail Capital (@DeepSailCapital) describes itself as a long/short growth-at-a-reasonable-price fund and has about 57,350 followers on X. On October 13, 2026 he wrote, "$QBTS is still worth $5.2B or 325x revenues." He has been short-leaning on quantum stocks for months, writing in May 2026, "Been waiting to re-enter a $RGTI & $QBTS short." and listing D-Wave again in August among "More Quantum Shorts".
Track record. In our tracking, Deep Sail Capital is 13-12 (a .520 win rate) on 25 calls scored at 180 days against the S&P 500, with an average edge of +8.94 percentage points, ranking 4th all time. His shorts are 9-4. His December 2025 short list that included QBTS beat the market by 11.16 points. See the scoreboard.
Other supporters:
- Brian Walker (@JAPITTER), who posts on technology fundamentals, wrote of D-Wave, "The revenue story still needs to catch up."
Who disagrees?
- Zach Morgan (@ZachMorgan632) argued the backlog matters more than the income statement for now, writing, "$QBTS's order book is growing, but the income statement hasn't caught up yet." He noted that system sales are recognized only on delivery.
- History. Kerrisdale Capital (@KerrisdaleCap) announced a QBTS short in April 2025 with "We're short $QBTS." The stock went from $7.37 to $35.04 over the next 180 days, the worst call in Kerrisdale's record on our scoreboard.
- The company. D-Wave calls itself the first company to offer both annealing and gate-model quantum computers and says its Advantage2 system has 4,500 qubits.
What are the key facts to verify?
- Second-quarter revenue, bookings and liquidity in D-Wave's results release.
- Share count, cash and operating loss in the June 30, 2026 10-Q.
- Full-year 2025 revenue of $24.6 million in the fourth-quarter release.
- Whether D-Wave raises new equity, which would change cash per share and dilution.
What would prove it right or wrong?
Signals the short is working:
- Third-quarter revenue stays near $3 million with no big system sale recognized.
- Cash and investments keep falling without new revenue to match.
- New share sales add dilution.
Signals it is failing:
- Booked system sales turn into recognized revenue in late 2026.
- Remaining performance obligations keep rising.
- The stock rallies on new quantum contracts despite the valuation.
This is journalism and commentary, not investment advice. We hold no position unless stated.