Mr Neutral Man aka "Howard Marks of REITs" (@Mr_Neutral_Man) stock calls: track record, win rate and every call

Stat line

Calls scored counts directional calls at least 180 days old, with repeats counted once. Edge is in percentage points versus the S&P 500. Streak and Last 10 run in date order, most recent last.

Ranked or unranked?

Unranked. A player needs 15 scored calls to be ranked, and Mr Neutral Man aka "Howard Marks of REITs" (@Mr_Neutral_Man) has none yet.

A player needs at least 15 scored calls in a view to be ranked. See the leaderboard.

Style and specialty

• Style: REIT special situations / liquidations
• Why we track this account: Public REIT liquidation and hard-asset commentary; Hard Asset Memo Substack. Not scored yet.
• What to keep in mind: Self-branded nickname; concentrated REIT liquidation bets can be illiquid.
• Followers on X: 13,123 (checked Nov 4, 2026)
• MCAFax status: Tracked voice (not on the daily rotation)

Current calls (open)

What the open calls argue, in our own words:

• CPT (neutral, Nov 2, 2026): Apartment oversupply is taking longer than expected to clear; waiting for Camden's report after MAA's weak new/renewal lease mix.
• CUBE (bullish, Oct 29, 2026): CubeSmart Q3: NYC/northern New Jersey stores (about a quarter of NOI) grew NOI 5.5% year over year in a high-barrier market; Sunbelt supply drags; he holds it as a low-leverage quality self-storage REIT.
• TLT (bullish, Oct 26, 2026): Suggests owning some long-Treasury ETF call options is not a bad idea.
• REXR (bullish, Oct 22, 2026): Says buying Rexford Industrial at about $230 per square foot solves the passive-income problem, and sees a good chance Blackstone or Prologis buys it once results inflect.
• SITC (bullish, Oct 22, 2026): Position update: SITC (bought $3.47-3.57 after the JV deal) is now 23.4% of capital and 25.7% notional of his portfolio; calls it a mostly-cash box.
• USO (bullish, Oct 21, 2026): Owns USO call options as a portfolio hedge against an oil spike to $150-200/bbl, framed as protecting his investors.
• SITC (bullish, Oct 20, 2026): Still long SITE Centers in late-stage liquidation, expecting a $3.00 cash distribution in about two weeks; regrets not adding at $3.39-3.40.
• WD (bullish, Oct 20, 2026): Adds Walker & Dunlop to his 2026 tax-loss-selling candidates for a 2027 recovery, after saying the stock looks very interesting.
• ARE (bullish, Oct 19, 2026): Confirms he likes ARE, in small size.
• WD (neutral, Oct 19, 2026): Says Walker & Dunlop stock looks very interesting and asks multifamily GPs for views on its underwriting, 2021-22 floating-rate Sunbelt exposure and servicing.
• SITC (bullish, Oct 19, 2026): Notes SITC rose 5% on a weak REIT day and says the market is starting to appreciate the liquidation.
• NXRT (bullish, Oct 19, 2026): Names ARE, LINE and NXRT as favorite 2026 tax-loss-selling candidates for a 2027 recovery; says his REIT book has the best torque.
• LINE (bullish, Oct 19, 2026): Names ARE, LINE and NXRT as favorite 2026 tax-loss-selling candidates for a 2027 recovery; says his REIT book has the best torque.
• ARE (bullish, Oct 19, 2026): Names ARE, LINE and NXRT as favorite 2026 tax-loss-selling candidates for a 2027 recovery; says his REIT book has the best torque.
• SITC (bullish, Oct 19, 2026): Position update: already holds a 25% notional / 23% actual SITC position, so could not add at the $3.39-$3.40 print.
• SITC (bullish, Oct 16, 2026): Raised SITE Centers to about a 20% portfolio weight after the $3.00 special distribution, calling it mostly a cash box with stub exposure a little over 3%.
• INVH (neutral, Oct 13, 2026): Notes Invitation Homes trades around $275-280k per home while it sold homes at ~$375-400k+ in Q2: a big public-vs-private value gap.
• REXR (bullish, Oct 13, 2026): Expects his REIT basket (CUBE, CPT, MAA, REXR) to compound above 10% a year over five years.
• MAA (bullish, Oct 13, 2026): Expects his REIT basket (CUBE, CPT, MAA, REXR) to compound above 10% a year over five years.
• CPT (bullish, Oct 13, 2026): Expects his REIT basket (CUBE, CPT, MAA, REXR) to compound above 10% a year over five years.
• CUBE (bullish, Oct 13, 2026): Expects his REIT basket (CUBE, CPT, MAA, REXR) to compound above 10% a year over five years.
• ERF.PA (bullish, Oct 13, 2026): Eurofins is a ~300-bagger since 1997 with 23-24% EBITDA margins and recurring revenue; expects FCF to spike in 12-18 months and calls the stock still cheap with heavy buybacks.
• REXR (bullish, Oct 12, 2026): Excited about Rexford Industrial on real-time SoCal warehouse market updates and the region's advanced-manufacturing growth.
• ERF.PA (bullish, Sep 11, 2026): Says Eurofins runs its buyback well (heavier during dislocations) and FCF should ramp next year to fund much larger buybacks.
• ERF.PA (bullish, Aug 20, 2026): Expects Eurofins to benefit as a wave of food safety recalls forces more testing.
• NXRT (bullish, Aug 4, 2026): After the Q2 guidance cut, says NexPoint Residential at about a 7% cap rate is cheap levered Sunbelt apartment beta, mostly floating-rate debt; would not be surprised if it doubles in 3 years but expects volatility; suggests 10-20% of a Sunbelt basket.

In their own words

• CPT (Nov 2, 2026): "I'm waiting for $CPT to report."
• CUBE (Oct 29, 2026): "High barrier, no rent regs like housing, truly a great asset"
• TLT (Oct 26, 2026): "Owning some $TLT calls isn't such a bad idea"
• REXR (Oct 22, 2026): "Buying $REXR at $230/sqft solves this problem"
• SITC (Oct 22, 2026): "It's an ungodly 23.4% (capital) and 25.7% (notional) of my portfolio now"

Related pages

• Market-calls leaderboard
• Ticker pages: ARE, CPT, CUBE, ERF.PA, INVH, LINE, MAA, NXRT, REXR, SITC, TLT, USO, WD

How we score these calls

A call wins when, 180 days after the post, the stock beat the S&P 500 in the direction the investor called (a long must outperform the index, a short must underperform it). Edge is the gap versus the S&P 500 in percentage points. Price at call is the last close known at the time of the post (Yahoo Finance daily bars, split-adjusted, in the listing currency). Track records cover calls from roughly the past year.

Last updated: November 5, 2026

Not investment advice; for research and education.