AvePoint, Inc. (Nasdaq: AVPT) closed at $14.87 on October 15, 2026. The same day, news that Proofpoint would acquire Varonis Systems (VRNS) for about $6.3 billion, or $49.75 a share in cash, refreshed an old relative-value debate. Stoic Point Capital Management (@stoic_point) wrote that data governance matters in an AI-agent world, that VRNS was getting acquired, and that "$AVPT is already growing faster, far more profitable, and fraction of the valuation."
This is journalism and commentary, not investment advice. We hold no position unless stated.
Key facts
- Ticker and exchange: AvePoint, AVPT, Nasdaq (also listed in Singapore).
- Situation type: Software relative-value long after a peer take-private.
- The call: Stoic Point's long lean on AVPT versus VRNS valuation, restated when VRNS agreed to sell.
- Price: AVPT closed at $14.87 on October 15, 2026.
- VRNS deal: Proofpoint (Thoma Bravo-backed) agreed to buy Varonis for about $6.3 billion, or $49.75 per share in cash, expected to close in the first half of 2027 subject to approvals.
- AVPT Q2 2026: Revenue about $124.5 million, up 22% year over year; SaaS revenue about $98.5 million, up 27%; GAAP operating margin about 8.2%.
- Cash: About $417.3 million of cash and cash equivalents as of June 30, 2026.
Is AVPT a good bet right now?
The bull case is simple comps arithmetic. If Varonis can clear a multi-billion takeout while AvePoint shows faster growth and better GAAP profitability, then AVPT may still be mispriced versus a just-cleared peer. Stoic Point has made that point since at least June 2026.
The bear case is that takeouts do not transfer cleanly. Varonis sold to a strategic/PE-backed buyer at a control premium. AvePoint may stay public, stay smaller, or simply not attract the same buyer set. Growth and margins can be better and the stock can still lag if investors want a different product mix or liquidity profile.
Why are investors bullish on AvePoint?
- Growth plus profits. Q2 2026 showed mid-20s SaaS growth with positive GAAP operating income, a mix bulls prefer to loss-making peers.
- AI trust-layer story. AvePoint brands itself around data security and governance for Microsoft-centric and AI workloads, the same secular bucket Stoic Point cites.
- Peer clearing price. A $49.75 VRNS deal gives a fresh public marker for what a buyer will pay for data-security software.
- Balance sheet. Hundreds of millions in cash reduce near-term survival risk that hangs over many smaller software names.
Who's making this call and why?
Stoic Point Capital Management (@stoic_point) is a small-cap value and special-situations account with about 3,400 followers. On October 15, 2026, after the VRNS deal news, it posted, "Data governance and security are critical in an AI agent world. And today $VRNS gets acquired. $AVPT is already growing faster, far more profitable, and fraction of the valuation." The account quoted its June 23, 2026 line that the valuation delta between VRNS and AVPT was "something to behold."
Track record. In our tracking, Stoic Point is 5-4 (a .556 win rate) on 9 scored calls at 180 days versus the S&P 500, with average excess of about +9.14 percentage points. With fewer than 15 matured calls it remains unranked on the career table. See the scoreboard.
Other context (not independent buy calls):
- Credible, specific second voices on AVPT were scarce in our October search window; much of the cashtag traffic was spam. We do not treat those posts as support.
- Competitive write-ups that compare AvePoint's growth and operating margins with Varonis's profile line up with Stoic Point's qualitative claim, but they are research notes, not X calls we retrieved as primary sources for this piece.
Who disagrees?
- Takeout-premium skeptics. VRNS holders got a control price. AVPT holders still own a minority stake in a public float; the same multiple need not apply.
- Product-mix skeptics. Some investors prefer pure data-security platforms over Microsoft-ecosystem data-management suites and will not re-rate AVPT just because VRNS cleared.
- Liquidity and index voters. Smaller software names can stay cheap for a long time after a peer deal if no buyer process starts.
What are the key facts to verify?
- Final VRNS proxy details: premium to undisturbed price, go-shop terms and close timing.
- AvePoint's next ARR, revenue and margin print versus the raised 2026 guide.
- Whether any strategic process or activist noise appears around AVPT after the VRNS deal.
- Competitive win rates versus Varonis, Rubrik, Commvault and Microsoft-native tools.
What would prove it right or wrong?
Signals the relative-value long is working:
- AVPT re-rates toward software peers on growth-plus-profit metrics after the VRNS clearing price.
- ARR and operating income keep compounding near company guidance.
- Strategic interest or multiple expansion closes part of the "fraction of the valuation" gap.
Signals it is failing:
- AVPT stays range-bound while other software names capture the takeout narrative.
- Growth slows or margins compress after higher second-half spending.
- A risk-off tape hits smaller Nasdaq software harder than the VRNS deal can offset.
This is journalism and commentary, not investment advice. We hold no position unless stated.