Bunge Global SA (NYSE: BG) beat third-quarter 2026 profit estimates on October 29 and kept its full-year adjusted EPS Outlook of $9.25 to $9.75, with $9.50 at the midpoint. Spruce Point Capital Management, a forensic short seller that has been bearish on Bunge since March 2026, says the cash flow tells a different story: by our math Bunge used about $1.2 billion of cash in operations in the third quarter alone. The next test is whether that cash comes back in the fourth quarter, as Bunge says working capital will.
This is journalism and commentary, not investment advice. We hold no position unless stated.
Key facts
- Ticker and exchange: Bunge Global SA, BG, New York Stock Exchange.
- Situation type: Activist short campaign against a large agribusiness after the Viterra merger.
- The call: Spruce Point reiterated its Bunge short on October 29, 2026, hours after the third-quarter release.
- Price: $94.72 at the November 3, 2026 close, down 6.0% from $100.80 before the results and 23.7% below $124.09 on March 24, 2026, the close before Spruce's report.
- Q3 2026: adjusted EPS of $2.56 versus $2.27 a year earlier; GAAP diluted EPS of $1.64.
- Cash: $2,302 million used in operations in the first nine months of 2026, versus $503 million a year earlier.
- Guidance: full-year 2026 adjusted EPS of $9.25 to $9.75, unchanged.
- Main risk to the short: Bunge says the cash gap is mostly working capital, and adjusted funds from operations rose to $2,008 million.
Is Bunge a good bet right now?
It depends on which number you trust. Bunge points to adjusted earnings and adjusted funds from operations, both up sharply. Spruce Point points to reported operating cash flow, which has been negative all year.
Earnings beat by a wide margin. The Reuters report cited an LSEG consensus of $2.44 a share against Bunge's $2.56.
Why is Spruce Point bearish on Bunge?
Spruce Point's October 29 case has four parts:
- Weaker high-margin segments. Bunge lowered its Outlook for Soybean Processing and Refining (slightly) and for Tropical Oils and Specialty Ingredients.
- Higher interest. Net interest expense guidance rose to $640 million to $670 million, from $620 million to $660 million.
- Cash burn. By our math, nine-month operating cash use of $2,302 million less first-half use of $1,126 million leaves about $1,176 million used in the third quarter.
- Funding returns with debt. Spruce says Bunge is drawing on its credit facility to pay the dividend and buybacks while keeping $9.50 of adjusted EPS guidance.
Who's making this call and why?
Spruce Point Capital Management (@sprucepointcap) describes itself on X as an activist investment manager founded by Ben Axler that specializes in forensic short-selling. It discloses that it talks its own book.
On October 29 it wrote: "$BG #Bunge results look horrible and they appear to be in a serious financial hole." Spruce cited a third-quarter swing in operating cash flow from +$854 million a year earlier to about -$1.2 billion; we confirmed the 2026 figure from the release but not Spruce's 2025 figure.
This is a reiteration. We covered the executive exits angle on October 9.
Track record. In our tracking, Spruce Point is 11-6 (a .647 win rate) on 17 calls scored at 180 days against the S&P 500, ranked 3rd on the career board, with an average edge of +10.4 points (median +10.0). Its March 2026 Bunge short beat the index by 27.7 points at 180 days. Its October 6 Bunge call, made at $107.32, is provisional and leads the index by about 9 points through the November 3 close. Its October 29 reiteration, made at $100.80, leads by about 4 points. See the scoreboard.
Supporter: Zachary Prensky (@Zackfoot), a former family-office manager focused on special situations, flagged the same gap after the first quarter: "People who are long/short $BG should take note of what @sprucepointcap is saying here". He called the difference between operating cash flow and adjusted funds from operations a black box.
Who disagrees?
- Management. Bunge said the higher cash use was "primarily driven by net changes in working capital," partly offset by higher net income, per its third-quarter release.
- Earnings. Reuters said Bunge benefited from robust soybean and oilseed processing margins.
- Commentators. Naeem Aslam (@NaeemAslam23), CIO of Zaye Capital Markets, wrote after the July results that "$BG remains undervalued against its stronger earnings base."
- Wall Street. BMO Capital, Barclays and Morgan Stanley kept positive ratings after the results, with price targets of $140 to $150 on October 30, per StockAnalysis, which cites TipRanks data.
- Insiders. Director Christopher Mahoney bought 6,500 shares in July and August 2026 at $105.53 to $107.60, per his Form 4.
We found no other reasoned take on the results on X by publication time; most posts relayed the headline numbers.
What are the key facts to verify?
- The Q3 2026 release: segment Outlook changes, interest guidance and the nine-month cash flow statement.
- The Q2 2026 release: first-half operating cash use of $1,126 million.
- Spruce Point's March 2026 report for its full argument.
- The upcoming 10-Q for borrowings, buybacks and readily marketable inventories.
What would prove it right or wrong?
Signals the short is working:
- Fourth-quarter operating cash flow stays negative and net debt keeps rising.
- Bunge trims the $9.25 to $9.75 range or reports lower 2027 guidance.
- More senior departures.
Signals it is failing:
- Working capital unwinds and operating cash flow turns positive in the fourth quarter.
- Bunge delivers $9.50 or more of adjusted EPS for 2026.
- Viterra synergies show up in cash, not just adjusted earnings.
This is journalism and commentary, not investment advice. We hold no position unless stated.
