Cury Construtora e Incorporadora (B3: CURY3), a Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro builder of affordable apartments, fell as much as 40% on October 26, 2026, from its R$32.50 close on October 23, as Brazilian markets crashed after Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva won re-election. A value investor argues the market sold the one homebuilder whose core business Lula's win protects. We checked the claim against the company's numbers and the skeptics.
This is journalism and commentary, not investment advice. We hold no position unless stated.
Key facts
- The crash: the B3 hit its first circuit breaker since March 2020; by about 11:10 a.m. local time, Reuters had Cyrela down 43.4%, MRV down 40.5% and Cury down 27.4%. Cury's intraday low was R$19.50, per Yahoo Finance data.
- Why builders fell: Reuters tied the drop to a jump in DI rate futures, a key input for housing finance and valuations.
- Program exposure: about 95% of Cury's portfolio fits Minha Casa Minha Vida (MCMV), the federal affordable-housing program, per Forbes Brasil.
- Q2 2026: net income of R$270.5 million, up 14.3%, on record revenue of R$1.69 billion, and a 12-month return on equity of 73.6%, per Money Times.
- Analysts: BTG Pactual rates the stock Buy with a R$42 target, per Forbes Brasil; Genial started coverage in July at Buy with a R$48 target.
- Dividends: management pays out roughly 70-80% of the prior year's profit.
Is CURY3 a good bet right now?
The thesis is unusual because it runs against the headline. Lula's election rattled markets over Brazil's budget, but MCMV is his signature housing program, and it funds most of Cury's buyers.
The risk is that the program's money is not the only thing that matters. Cury's buyers also need Caixa, the state bank, to approve and transfer their mortgages, and Caixa has been tightening.
Why are investors bullish on Cury?
- Returns. A 73.6% return on equity is far above Brazilian peers, helped by presales and bank payments during construction.
- Rates set by the program. Blissett notes that MCMV mortgage rates are set by the program rather than the Selic, so a spike in market rates does not directly change buyers' payments.
- Cheap on earnings. Forbes Brasil put the stock near 9 times earnings at about R$32, before the crash.
- Cash returns. Forbes Brasil cited a trailing dividend yield of about 13% at that price.
Who's making this call and why?
Calvin Blissett, a value investor who publishes on Substack, posted his write-up on October 26 under the headline "Cury ($CURY3): The Market Sold the One Homebuilder Lula Just Protected."
In the article, he notes JPMorgan had downgraded Cury weeks earlier on the risk that a Bolsonaro government would deprioritize MCMV. His scenarios run from a R$12.98 bear case to a R$48.69 bull case, with a weighted value near R$31.65. He says the morning bounce took "some of the easy money off the table."
Track record. Calvin Blissett is not yet scored in our tracking. His X bio says his equally weighted Substack write-ups are up 21.5% in a year, a figure we have not verified. See the scoreboard.
Other supporters: Cury's own management told BTG, before the vote, that it saw MCMV as protected whoever won, per Forbes Brasil. Reuters, via UOL, noted that builders focused on low-income housing, such as Cury and Direcional, may be cushioned.
Who disagrees?
Ricardo Penha, a Brazilian equity analyst, warned on October 19 that builder stocks had rallied 17% in a month while the sector's launches fell 32% in the quarter. In his post, written in Portuguese, he said the third quarter was weak beyond high-end builders, with sales down 26%, and that someone was looking in the wrong place.
Blissett lists the risks himself:
- Caixa stays tight. Cancellations jumped to 15% of gross sales in the 3Q26 preview from 7.7% the prior quarter, he writes.
- Fiscal stress. The federal budget funds part of the down-payment subsidies for the lowest-income buyers.
- Cost inflation. Program price caps limit how much higher costs can be passed on.
- Share overhang. Cyrela, a co-founder, has cut its stake to about 15%.
What are the key facts to verify?
- Reuters via UOL and InfoMoney on the October 26 moves.
- Forbes Brasil on MCMV exposure, the BTG target and dividends.
- Money Times on Q2 2026 results.
- Genial's coverage report.
What would prove it right or wrong?
Right: 3Q26 results show cancellations falling back toward earlier levels, gross margin near the 39-40% range, and the FGTS housing budget for 2027 left intact.
Wrong: Blissett's own test. He says cancellations above 12-15% for more than two quarters, gross margin below 37% and a cut to the 2027 FGTS housing budget, all together, would mean he is wrong.
This is journalism and commentary, not investment advice. We hold no position unless stated.
