Hertz Global Holdings (NASDAQ: HTZ) closed at $2.26 on November 4, 2026, then reported third-quarter results on November 5 that missed EPS estimates even as the company titled the release its strongest quarterly revenue and EBITDA performance in three years. Into that print, Interactive Brokers showed borrow rates as high as 259%, and DeepSail Capital flagged a "wild" session with borrow out at IBKR and Robinhood. A hard-to-borrow tape can move the stock violently; it does not by itself fix fleet costs, residual values or interest expense.
This is journalism and commentary, not investment advice. We hold no position unless stated.
Key facts
- Ticker: HTZ on Nasdaq; situation type is a high-short-interest, hard-to-borrow earnings tape.
- The call: DeepSail Capital said Hertz "should be a wild one" with earnings the next day, borrow out at IBKR/Robinhood and post-election market buying.
- Price: $2.26 at the November 4 close; DeepSail's November 4 post used the prior session context after earlier borrow-rate notes when the stock was near $2.07 / $1.95 on the closes before those posts.
- Borrow: DeepSail reported IBKR showing a 259% borrow rate on November 3, after earlier same-day notes that shares were out of borrow at IBKR, Schwab and Robinhood near a 173% rate.
- Earnings: market summaries after the November 5 release, including CHItrader, said adjusted EPS of $0.14 versus a $0.25 estimate; the company release framed revenue and EBITDA as the strongest quarterly performance in three years.
- Setup: squeeze-long lean into scarcity; DeepSail did not publish a share-count long or an options strike in the posts we logged.
- Risk frame: borrow spikes reverse when locates return; fundamental misses can overwhelm technical squeezes after the print.
Is HTZ a good bet into a borrow spike?
It depends on whether you are trading a short-covering tape or underwriting a multi-quarter rental-car recovery. Those are different questions. The DeepSail notes are about borrow scarcity and session volatility, not a full fundamental model of fleet depreciation.
Why are some traders bullish on Hertz here?
- Borrow scarcity. Multi-hundred-percent borrow rates and "out of borrow" flags at large brokers can force covering when volume spikes.
- Event tape. Earnings days concentrate attention; DeepSail explicitly tied the setup to the November 5 print plus broader market buying after the U.S. election.
- Company tone. The company's "strongest ... In three years" language on revenue and EBITDA gives bulls a narrative even when EPS misses the Street.
Who's making this call and why?
DeepSail Capital posts trading setups with an emphasis on borrow, flow and catalysts. On November 4 it wrote: "$HTZ - Should be a wild one today. Earnings tomorrow, Borrow out at IBKR/RH, and general market buying after the election." The day before it highlighted the 259% IBKR borrow print.
Track record. In our tracking DeepSail is 13-12 on 25 calls scored at 180 days against the S&P 500, with an average edge of about +8.9 points. The last 10 scored 2-8. See the scoreboard.
Other voices. Squeeze-focused accounts on X echoed hard-to-borrow flags into the print. We treat those as color; the checkable facts are broker borrow screens and the company release.
Who disagrees?
Fundamental bears start with the EPS miss versus consensus and with Hertz's long post-bankruptcy history of fleet residual risk, interest costs and competitive airport pricing. Post-print summaries such as CHItrader and IntradayRider stressed the EPS miss against the company's upbeat operating language. When borrow normalizes, a stock that rallied on scarcity can give back gains quickly if the fundamental story is still weak.
Other risks:
- Not a long thesis. DeepSail framed volatility and borrow, not a multi-year intrinsic-value target.
- Recent form. DeepSail's last 10 scored calls are 2-8; weight the borrow data, not the streak.
- Liquidity gaps. Low-priced, hard-to-borrow names can gap both ways; stops may not fill where expected.
What are the key facts to verify?
- Broker borrow rate and locate availability on IBKR and other major platforms the day after the print.
- The company earnings release for EPS, revenue, free cash flow and fleet commentary.
- Short interest as a percent of float from the latest exchange report (updates lag).
- Interest expense and residual-value marks in the 10-Q.
What would prove it right or wrong?
Signals the squeeze setup mattered:
- Sharp short-covering volume while locates stayed scarce into and after the print.
- Sustained borrow fees that keep new shorts expensive.
Signals it faded:
- Borrow rates collapsing as shares return to inventory.
- Post-print selling that ignores the "strongest in three years" language and focuses on the EPS miss and balance-sheet costs.
- Dilutive capital actions if liquidity tightens.
This is journalism and commentary, not investment advice. We hold no position unless stated.
