Zevia PBC (NYSE: ZVIA), the zero-sugar soda maker, closed at $1.28 on October 23, 2026, after saying third-quarter net sales came in around $48 million, up about 18% from a year earlier and above its own guidance. The same day it sold convertible preferred stock to GP Investments with a conversion price of $1.448. A small fund that pitches under-covered stocks cheered both, so we looked at whether the growth is coming from price cuts and what the new preferred costs common holders.
This is journalism and commentary, not investment advice. We hold no position unless stated.
Key facts
- Preliminary Q3: net sales of about $48 million, against guidance of $44 million to $46 million and $40.8 million a year earlier.
- Losses narrowing: Q3 adjusted EBITDA is expected at negative $0.9 million to negative $1.0 million, better than the prior guide of negative $3.0 million to negative $3.5 million.
- New money: up to $20 million of Series A convertible preferred stock sold to an affiliate of GP Investments; $15 million closed on October 22.
- Terms: a $1.448 conversion price, set at 120% of the 10-day average price, a 6% dividend paid in kind, and one board seat.
- Second tranche: the last $5 million depends on 2026 net sales of at least $172.5 million and adjusted EBITDA no worse than negative $3.0 million, unless GP waives.
- Balance sheet: $28.5 million of cash and no debt at June 30, 2026, before the new money.
- Next report: full Q3 results on November 4, 2026.
Is ZVIA a good bet right now?
The sales beat is real and comes from the company itself. The open question is quality: industry scanner data shows Zevia's volume surging while its average price fell, and the new investor bought a security that sits ahead of common shareholders.
At about 72.2 million common shares, implied by the filing's conversion cap, Zevia's market value is roughly $92 million by our math, or a little over half of 2026 sales guidance.
Why are investors bullish on Zevia?
- Acceleration. About $48 million in Q3 would be roughly 18% growth, after just 1.1% growth in Q2.
- A beat on losses. The adjusted EBITDA loss is now expected to be less than a third of the prior guide's midpoint.
- A credible partner. GP Investments says it was founded by the entrepreneurs behind AB InBev and 3G, and it converts at a 20% premium to the recent average price.
- Marketing. Zevia signed Cardi B in March 2026 and ran its biggest campaign to date this summer, per Marketing Dive.
- Retail data. NielsenIQ figures relayed on X show Zevia volume growing much faster than rival Olipop.
Who's making this call and why?
Stoic Point Capital Management, a small fund that publishes stock pitches, posted on October 22: "$ZVIA revs 18% Y/Y or 32% 2yr-stacked." It added: "Landed both Cardi B and a Convertible P!" The two-year figure checks out: about $48 million is roughly 32% above the $36.4 million Zevia reported for Q3 2024.
Track record. In our tracking, Stoic Point is 5-4 (a .556 win rate) on nine calls scored at 180 days against the S&P 500, with an average edge of +9.14 points, too few calls to be ranked. Its best was a December 2025 Butterfly Network long, up 65.2 points versus the index. See the scoreboard.
Other supporters: Beverage Insights, an account that posts beverage scanner data, flagged the trend first. It wrote on October 22: "Zevia volume up 32% with a 7.9% avg price drop for 4 wks." That covered the four weeks through October 3, per NielsenIQ.
Who disagrees?
We found no credible X account arguing against Zevia this month; searches for the ticker were dominated by promotional spam. The skeptical case comes from the numbers.
- Growth bought with price? Beverage Insights reported volume up 23% on a 4.2% price drop for the four weeks through September 19. In Q2, by contrast, Zevia said sales rose on price while volume fell 3.7%.
- Dilution. If all $20 million converts at $1.448, that is about 13.8 million new shares, roughly 19% of today's common, before in-kind dividends.
- A financing, not a sale. Zevia says Piper Sandler spent 12 months reviewing strategic and financing alternatives, and the result was a minority investment.
- Preferred rights. Holders can demand cash redemption after a change of control, and after the fourth anniversary under certain conditions.
- Losses. Zevia had an accumulated deficit of $136.3 million at June 30.
What are the key facts to verify?
- The October 22 press release with preliminary Q3 numbers and deal summary.
- The Form 8-K for the preferred terms, tranche conditions and conversion cap.
- The Q2 2026 results for cash, volume and guidance.
- The Q3 2025 results for the comparison base.
- Marketing Dive on the Cardi B campaign.
What would prove it right or wrong?
Right: the November 4 report confirms about $48 million in sales with steady gross margins, volume growth holds without deeper discounts, and Zevia clears the $172.5 million bar for the second tranche.
Wrong: gross margin drops because of the price cuts, growth fades once promotions end, and the preferred mostly funds losses rather than growth.
This is journalism and commentary, not investment advice. We hold no position unless stated.
