Aker ASA (Oslo: AKER), the Norwegian holding company controlled by Kjell Inge Rokke, closed at NOK 1,158 on October 26, 2026, down 14.0% from NOK 1,346 on October 12 as the AI data center trade sold off. A global special-situations investor says the share price now values Aker's 22.7% stake in Nscale, a UK AI cloud company preparing a US IPO, at only about $11 billion for the whole of Nscale. That is below Nscale's $14.6 billion Series C value, but investors are reported to be pushing the IPO valuation down, and the listing date is not set.
This is journalism and commentary, not investment advice. We hold no position unless stated.
Key facts
- The holding company: Aker reported net asset value (NAV) of NOK 106.1 billion, or NOK 1,429 a share, at June 30, 2026, with 74.29 million shares.
- Nscale stake: 22.7% fully diluted, carried at NOK 32.1 billion based on the $14.6 billion Series C, or 26.4% of gross assets.
- Biggest holding: a 21.2% stake in oil producer Aker BP, worth NOK 40.6 billion and 33.4% of gross assets at June 30.
- Pending sale: Aker agreed to sell Cognite to Schneider Electric, valued at NOK 14.7 billion in the NAV; closing needs regulatory approvals.
- Nscale funding: a $3.36 billion pre-IPO convertible led by Third Point on September 25, including $1 billion from NVIDIA due in mid-November.
- Next date: Aker reports third-quarter 2026 results on November 4, 2026.
Is Aker a good bet right now?
The case for Aker is a discount on a discount. Aker has long traded below its NAV, and the bull says the current price implies a low value for Nscale even before that gap is counted. If Nscale lists near its hoped-for range, the value Aker reports for Nscale could rise.
The case against is that Nscale's value is not set by anyone yet. Reported investor pushback, project delays and a weak AI infrastructure market could mean a lower IPO price, a delay, or a need for more private money.
Why are investors bullish on Aker?
- Implied value. By the bull's math the market values Nscale near $11 billion through Aker's shares.
- Smart money in the cap table. The convertible round drew Third Point, NVIDIA, funds managed by Apollo and Citadel.
- Contracts. Nscale says it has over $103 billion of total contracted value.
- Cash in hand. The Cognite sale would turn a private stake into cash.
Who's making this call and why?
A Capital, an X account describing itself as a global special-situations investor, wrote on October 27 that backing out Aker's other holdings and applying its historical discount of about 22% implies roughly $11 billion for Nscale. Its upside case: "At a $25-30bn IPO, I get ~27-39% upside assuming some HoldCo discount compression." It suggests hedging part of the sector risk with short positions in listed neoclouds, and states no position in Aker.
Our check: using June 30 holdings, October 26 closing prices for the listed stakes and a 22% discount, we also get about $11 billion for 100% of Nscale. Analysts differ on the inputs. Finansavisen reported that Danske Bank's analyst saw about $15 billion at a 20% discount and ABG Sundal Collier about $17.5 billion at 23%, using prices from mid-October.
Track record. A Capital is new to our tracking, so it has no scored calls yet. See the scoreboard.
Other supporters: we found no other investor making a reasoned case on Aker on X this week.
Who disagrees?
Nebulizer, an X account that says it is fully invested in Nscale rival Nebius and calls its opinions biased, wrote of Nscale: "Problem is they have not raised a lot of debt and they will need much more fuel to hit GW scale."
The reporting is tougher, as Finansavisen summarized on October 19:
- Valuation pushback. Bloomberg reported a group of investors favors $16 billion to $19 billion, against a target near $30 billion.
- Lost customer project. Microsoft withdrew from a 50 MW UK project, under 4% of Nscale's 1.37 GW of signed capacity, per ABG.
- Delivery risk. The Financial Times reported Anthropic could exit a $45 billion deal if Nscale misses financing or delivery deadlines in West Virginia.
- Delays. Nscale's Glomfjord data center in Norway is about six months behind plan.
- Funding gap. Danske's analyst warned existing owners could have to fill a gap if the IPO does not happen.
What are the key facts to verify?
- Aker's Q2 2026 report for the NAV table, the Nscale carrying value and debt.
- Nscale's convertible financing release for the round terms.
- The November 4 Q3 report for any change to the Nscale value and the Cognite closing.
- Whether Nscale files publicly for its US IPO and at what range.
What would prove it right or wrong?
Right: Nscale prices an IPO well above $14.6 billion, the Cognite cash arrives, and Aker's NAV discount narrows from the roughly 19.7% it showed at June 30 by our math.
Wrong: the IPO slips or prices near $16 billion or lower, Nscale needs more money from existing owners, or oil prices pull down the Aker BP stake.
This is journalism and commentary, not investment advice. We hold no position unless stated.
