Camden Property Trust (NYSE: CPT), a Sunbelt apartment landlord, closed at $100.68 on November 3, 2026, ahead of third-quarter results due after the close on November 5. REIT investor Jussi Askola says the coming recovery in apartment rents is one of the biggest opportunities in REITs, because new construction has collapsed. Other investors say peer MAA's weak new-lease pricing shows the Sunbelt oversupply is taking longer to clear than expected.
This is journalism and commentary, not investment advice. We hold no position unless stated.
Key facts
- Ticker: CPT on the New York Stock Exchange; situation type is a cyclical rent recovery ahead of earnings.
- The call: Askola picks Camden as one of three REITs he would buy after the selloff and expects 15% to 20% annual total returns; no specific position stated in the posts.
- Price: $100.69 at the October 30, 2026 close, the last close before his November 1 posts; $100.68 at the November 3 close; 52-week range $95.30 to $119.81.
- Guidance: 2026 core FFO of $6.68 to $6.82 a share, or about 14.9 times the $6.75 midpoint by our math at $100.68.
- Dividend: $1.06 a quarter, a yield of about 4.2% at $100.68.
- Leverage: net debt of 5.3 times EBITDA at mid-year.
- Catalyst: third-quarter results after the close on Thursday, November 5, with a call on November 6.
Is CPT a good bet right now?
It depends on timing. The supply argument is widely accepted, but Camden's second-quarter numbers still showed falling new-lease rents, and peer MAA's third-quarter report on October 28 showed the pressure had not ended.
Why are investors bullish on Camden?
- Supply is shrinking. Askola argues that with deliveries expected to stay low through 2030, landlords could regain pricing power. That is his forecast.
- Buybacks below the stock price. Camden bought back 4,062,166 shares at an average of $104.08 this year through its second-quarter report, about $422.9 million, with $297.9 million of authorization left, per its second-quarter release.
- Portfolio sale done. It sold its California portfolio of 11 communities and 3,620 homes for about $1.625 billion on July 29.
- Occupancy held. Same-property occupancy was 95.7% in the second quarter, and renewals rose 2.8%.
- A peer data point. MAA said October new-lease pricing showed its first year-over-year improvement of 2026, per its third-quarter release.
Who's making this call and why?
Jussi Askola, CFA, runs Leonberg Capital and sells a paid REIT research service. He wrote: "Years of oversupply hurt landlords like Camden ($CPT), but new construction has now collapsed." In a later post he named Camden, Agree Realty and Xior Student Housing as his three picks.
Track record. Askola is not on our scoreboard. In a backtest of 22 of his calls from February to April 2026, 3 beat the S&P 500 over 180 days. His February 2026 Camden long trailed the index by 9.5 points over 180 days. See the scoreboard.
Who disagrees?
REIT investor Mr Neutral Man, who named Camden in a REIT basket on October 13, is waiting. He wrote "I'm waiting for $CPT to report," adding that he expected MAA's tough new and renewal mix. Another value investor replied: "Not sure there is a simple fix to biblical oversupply in the sunbelt."
The bear points are concrete:
- New leases still falling. Camden's second-quarter new leases were down 3.3%, and blended rents fell 0.2%.
- MAA got worse on new leases. MAA's third-quarter new leases fell 6.0%, same-store NOI fell 1.8%, and it cut its 2026 revenue guidance to a midpoint of -0.25%.
- Weak guidance. Camden guided to same-property NOI down 0.6% at the midpoint for 2026.
- Legal costs. Camden agreed to a $53.0 million settlement of a revenue-management class action.
What are the key facts to verify?
- Third-quarter new-lease, renewal and blended rent changes when Camden reports on November 5.
- Whether 2026 core FFO guidance of $6.68 to $6.82 holds, and any early 2027 view.
- Pace of buybacks in the third quarter versus the $297.9 million left.
- Supply forecasts for Camden's largest Sunbelt markets.
What would prove it right or wrong?
Signals the recovery case is working:
- New-lease rents turning positive year over year by early 2027.
- Camden repeating MAA's October improvement in its own October and November data.
- Same-property NOI guidance raised.
Signals it is wrong:
- New-lease declines deepening in the third quarter.
- A cut to core FFO guidance.
- Concessions rising in key Sunbelt markets.
This is journalism and commentary, not investment advice. We hold no position unless stated.
