Hippo Holdings (NYSE: HIPO), the home and commercial insurance group, closed at $35.28 on October 16, 2026. At the Sohn San Francisco conference, Stoic Point Capital co-founder Cullen Rose pitched it under the headline "HIPO CAN DOUBLE IN LESS THAN TWO YEARS," targeting $60+ by year-end 2027. The case rests on a tax asset that could lift book value about 40%, a fronting carrier the fund values above the whole company, and continued profits after years of losses.
This is journalism and commentary, not investment advice. We hold no position unless stated.
Key facts
- Ticker and exchange: Hippo Holdings, HIPO, New York Stock Exchange.
- The call: Stoic Point Capital's Sohn San Francisco pitch, shared on X on October 16, 2026 (UTC).
- Target: $60+ by year-end 2027, from about +60% book value growth and a re-rating to 2.5x tangible book; the slides put value at $50 to $80 per share.
- Price: $35.28 on October 16, 2026, a market value of about $931 million.
- Latest quarter (Q2 2026): net income of $10.1 million, gross written premium of $482 million (up 61.5%), combined ratio of 95.8%.
- Book value: $17.65 per share and $15.56 tangible per share at June 30, 2026.
- Next report: third-quarter results before the market opens on October 29, 2026.
Is HIPO a good bet right now?
The pitch is about book value, not a cheap earnings multiple. At $35.28 Hippo trades near 2.3 times June tangible book on our math, already close to the 2.5x the pitch assumes. So the target depends mostly on book value growing: the slides show a $6.82 per share deferred tax asset on top of $17.64 of book value, which they expect "appears in book value in early 2027." If that happens and profits keep compounding, $60 is reachable on the fund's math; if recognition is delayed or losses return, the re-rating case is thin.
Why are investors bullish on Hippo?
- The turnaround is showing up. The pitch cites "5 straight profitable quarters," after a peak quarterly loss ratio of 344% in 2023.
- Guidance went up. In its Q2 release, Hippo raised 2026 guidance to $1.65 to $1.7 billion of gross written premium and $62 to $70 million of adjusted net income.
- Hidden assets. The slides say "Spinnaker alone is worth more than HIPO," valuing the Spinnaker fronting carrier at $763 million to $1,220 million, near or above Hippo's market value.
- A tax asset. The fund points to a "$180mm NOL asset" not yet in book value.
- Liquidity. The slides expect trading liquidity to improve after a secondary offering, widening the buyer base.
Who's making this call and why?
Stoic Point Capital Management (@stoic_point) is a small-cap value fund founded in 2018 by Cullen Rose and Raj Shah, with about 3,400 followers on X; its slides describe about eight core long positions. On October 16, 2026 (UTC) it posted that "our Co-Founder Cullen Rose pitched $HIPO (Hippo Holdings) at the event."
Track record. In our tracking, Stoic Point is 5-4 (a .556 win rate) on 9 calls scored at 180 days against the S&P 500, with an average edge of about +9.14 percentage points. It is unranked on the career table. See the scoreboard.
Other supporters:
- Pat MacNeill (@MacNeillPatrick) wrote on August 28, citing raised 2028 guidance of $2.5 billion in premium, "My target price for the stock is $75 by the end of 2027."
- Philipp Haas (@PhilippHaas_ir), a fund founder, published a write-up titled "The Insurtech That Stopped Chasing Hype and Started Making Money."
Who disagrees?
We did not find a detailed bear case on X in our search, so these counterpoints come from the company's own numbers.
- Loss ratio creep. The Q2 net loss ratio rose to 50.4% from 47.0%, as favorable reserve development shrank. Fast-growing commercial lines need time to prove their loss picks.
- Catastrophe exposure. Third quarters are typically hurricane and wildfire season, and one bad storm year can undo several good quarters.
- Accounting timing. Moving the tax asset into book value is a judgment by management and auditors; it may come later than early 2027.
- Supply of stock. The pitch itself expects a secondary offering, which can weigh on the price before liquidity improves.
What are the key facts to verify?
- Third-quarter results on October 29, 2026: combined ratio, net loss ratio and catastrophe losses.
- Any change in the deferred tax asset valuation allowance.
- Growth in partner programs and the homeowners business.
- Book value and tangible book value per share versus June's $17.65 and $15.56.
- Any secondary offering and who is selling.
What would prove it right or wrong?
Right: the tax asset is recognized on schedule, book value climbs toward the pitch's roughly 40% lift, combined ratios stay below 100%, and the stock moves toward $60 by year-end 2027.
Wrong: loss ratios keep rising, a heavy catastrophe quarter returns Hippo to losses, the tax asset stays off the balance sheet, or a large secondary floods the stock.
This is journalism and commentary, not investment advice. We hold no position unless stated.