Deckers Outdoor Corporation (NYSE: DECK) closed at $86.58 on October 15, 2026. Special-situations writer Colin King (@valuedontlie) flagged his September Quick Value note that called Deckers a beaten-down "busted GARP" name after HOKA growth slowed and the stock re-rated from roughly 30x earnings toward about 11x. In that September 9, 2026 write-up he sketched upside near $120 at 16x FY27 EPS and downside near $49 at 7x, while disclosing no position and keeping DECK on a watchlist.
This is journalism and commentary, not investment advice. We hold no position unless stated.
Key facts
- Ticker and exchange: Deckers Outdoor, DECK, NYSE.
- Situation type: Quality footwear compounder after a growth scare and multiple reset ("busted GARP").
- The call: Colin King / Value Don't Lie watchlist long lean in September 2026, reiterated in an October 15 write-up list.
- Price: DECK closed at $86.58 on October 15, 2026 (as of October 15 close).
- September snapshot: Write-up used about $83, ~11x earnings, ~$11.3 billion market cap and an unlevered balance sheet.
- Brands: HOKA (running), UGG (lifestyle) and Teva (sandals).
- Main risk: HOKA maturation, tariffs and footwear demand could keep compressing the multiple even if earnings hold.
Is DECK a good bet right now?
The bull case is mean reversion on the multiple, not a return to 50% HOKA growth. King argued revenue is still growing, the balance sheet is net cash and historic footwear comps plus the 2025 Skechers takeout around 15x earnings point to a 14-18x band if growth stabilizes in the mid-single digits.
The bear case is that "busted GARP" often stays busted. If HOKA growth keeps fading, tariffs linger and SG&A stays elevated into FY28, the market can keep DECK in a low-teens or high-single-digit earnings multiple for a long time. King's own downside sketch used about 7x on missed EPS near $7.
Why are investors bullish on Deckers Outdoor?
- Multiple reset. Shares fell hard from a late-2024 peak near $200 as the P/E came down from over 30x while HOKA decelerated from hyper-growth.
- Balance sheet. The September note stressed an unlevered, net-cash model with heavy historical buybacks when the stock was cheap.
- International runway. King highlighted international at about 42% of sales with faster growth, comparing that stage to Skechers earlier in its public life.
- Takeout comps. Skechers' 2025 take-private around 15x earnings is the cleanest footwear valuation anchor in the write-up.
Who's making this call and why?
Colin King (@valuedontlie) is a special-situations and value writer with about 12,500 followers. Career tracking shows 11-8 (.579) on 19 scored calls versus the S&P 500 at 180 days, with average excess about +35.1 percentage points, ranking 4th. See the scoreboard. On October 15, 2026 he listed "$DECK beaten down (busted GARP)" among September write-ups.
Other supporters:
- Derek (@derekdevore) wrote on October 13 that after Nike's slide, "After watching $NKE downfall, $DECK becomes more of a buy," citing HOKA share gains, about 10x forward earnings, about 7.8x EV/EBITDA and roughly $1.1 billion of net cash.
- Backlog Alpha (@BacklogAlpha) noted Michael Burry-style portfolio chatter that rotated from LULU toward DECK among selective value longs (third-party summary, not a Burry primary post we retrieved).
Who disagrees?
- Growth skeptics. King's own piece admits HOKA may be maturing and that pre-tax income fell in Q1 FY27 as SG&A rose. If that is structural, 11x may not be a floor.
- Category headwinds. Footwear names such as NKE, ONON and others have been beaten up in 2026; a sector derating can overwhelm company-specific math.
- Watchlist, not a position. King disclosed no DECK position in September and framed the note as idea generation, which is a softer lean than a funded long.
What are the key facts to verify?
- FY27 revenue and EPS guidance (write-up cited about 7-8% sales growth and $7.35-$7.50 EPS).
- HOKA versus UGG growth splits and international mix updates on the next print.
- Tariff cost guidance versus the ability to offset with price or mix.
- Buyback pace at current prices versus the dilution or share-count path in the upside case.
What would prove it right or wrong?
Signals the busted-GARP thesis is working:
- Growth stabilizes in the mid-single digits while margins stop contracting.
- The multiple re-expands toward the mid-teens without needing a return to 30x.
- Buybacks shrink the share count while net cash stays intact.
Signals it is failing:
- HOKA decelerates further and EPS guidance cuts stack.
- Tariffs or promotions crush margins.
- DECK trades toward high-single-digit earnings multiples with no catalyst for re-rating.
This is journalism and commentary, not investment advice. We hold no position unless stated.